Small Craft Advisory 109, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1106 PM PST FRI DEC 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
ALONG THE COASTS AND EXPOSED RIDGES.

&&
.UPDATED...CALTRANS REPORTS REQUIRING CHAINES IN EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTY OVER BUCKHORN SUMMIT ON 299...HIGHWAY 3 NORTH OF
HAYFORK...AND HIGHWAY 36 WEST OF HIGHWAY 3 INTERSECTION. HAVE
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS BUT AMOUNTS DONT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
LOWERING SNOW ADVISORY LEVELS. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOPING WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. SHARP LINES OF REFLECTIVITY SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER
COASTAL WATERS AND WITH WINDS AT 3000 FEET FROM VAD WIND PROFILE AT
50KT OR ABOVE...THESE WINDS COULD GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
HAVE ISSUED MWS. DEAN

.PREV DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STORM SYSTEM STARTING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF MAIN MOISTURE
BELT. ALSO JUST SEEING SOME LIGHT ECHOES AND NO MAJOR COOLING OF
CLOUDS ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING A SLOWER ONSET TO
PRECIP. BESIDES A SLOWER START...REST OF FORECAST SHOULD CONTINUE ON
TRACK...ESPECIALLY SINCE 75+ KT LLJ AT 875MB IMPINGES REDWOOD COAST
OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL LIFT. WINDS ALONG THE
REDWOOD AND MENDOCINO COAST WILL BE STRONG...AND WILL CONTINUE WINDY
WORDING IN ZONES. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ADDS TO SYNOPTIC UVM AS VORT
MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING 130W JUST SOUTH OF 40N PUSHES ENE OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK ACCORDINGLY...ALONG
WITH ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE WILL RESULT IN RISING SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND TONIGHT
DOWN TO 3000 FT AND TO 2500 FT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS.  PRECIP WILL
TURN LIGHTER AND BECOME MOSTLY ALL RAIN SATURDAY AS WARM TEMPS
REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL SEE A COUPLE MORE PERIODS OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION BOTH SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AND SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING.
THE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING SHORT WAVE LOOKS A BIT STRONGER AND
COOLER...AND PERHAPS WILL REQUIRE ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ABOVE 4000 OR 4500 FT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ATTM. IMPACTS FOR
THIS WEEKEND INCLUDE SOME SLICK CONDITIONS ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
PASSES ON 36 AND 299...POSSIBLE ROCK SLIDES...NUISANCE
FLOODING...MAIN STEM RAPID RIVER RISES /BUT NO FLOODING/. WIND GUSTS
ON COASTAL MOUNTAIN RIDGES WILL BE STRONG AS WELL TONIGHT...WITH
MINOR TREE DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH MID WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND STORM SYSTEMS
AS DEEP TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES OFFSHORE. GFS HAS BEEN MOST
CONSISTENT WITH SWINGING WEDNESDAY STORM TO THE SOUTH...HOWEVER
CANNOT DISCOUNT GEM HITTING THE NORTH COAST REGION JUST YET. FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AIMED AT THE NORTH COAST REGION. IMPACTS
WITH THIS UPCOMING STORM MAY BE MORE SEVERE AS SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE ROCK SLIDES AND NUISANCE FLOODING MORE
LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...SNOW LEVELS LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS
LEVEL...BUT THEY WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH
EXPECTED EXTRA TRAVELERS. HENRY

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE DECREASED TO MVFR INLAND WHILE COASTAL
AREAS LOW END VFR. LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
AS FRONT PASSES BETWEEN ABOUT 1 AND 4 AM. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING
WINDS ALOFT AT 3000 FEET AT 50KT SHOW SHOULD SEE LLWS IN SOME AREAS.
RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS WITH MAINLY LOW END VFR CONDITIONS AND FEW
AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE BEHIND FRONT
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUING INTO THE REST OF THE MORNING.
DEAN
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 KT
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AND 45 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS THE
FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE REMAIN 40-50
KT. WITH THE HEAVY RAINS MOVING OVER THE AREA WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME 50 KT WINDS MIX DOWN OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. REGARDLESS, LEFT THE WARNINGS UNCHANGED. WIND WAVES
ARE STILL FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT THEY WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL BECOME MIXED SATURDAY BEFORE A WEST SWELL BECOMES
DOMINANT. MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF OF THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WEST SWELL TO BUILD AND PEAK NEAR 20 FT BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS, BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED BECAUSE THE SWELL MAY BE UNDERDONE. WINDS WILL PICK
UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW PASSES NEAR THE
AREA. BEYOND THAT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. STROZ

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR THE CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WARNING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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