River Flood Watch 1, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
240 PM PST TUE JAN 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH ASHORE THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL. PERIODS OF
STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE/MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT
WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. NEXT MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST NEAR 140W
PER WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW
WITH SURFACE LOW CENTER DROPPING BELOW 970MB AND PUSHING TOWARD THE
DEL NORTE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ENHANCED LIFT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR WEDNESDAY. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS KING RANGE AND SOUTH FORK.
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH INSTABILITY AND STRONG
FORCING PRESENT.

HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING IN TYPICAL LOW
LYING AREAS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...AND URBAN PONDING OF WATER IN UKIAH
DURING HEAVY SHOWERS.  SINCE WE ARE RECEIVING A SHORT BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE.

SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE RUNNING AT LEAST 500 FEET LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH REPORTS OF ACCUMULATION OF 2 INCHES
BETWEEN 3500 AND 4 KFT IN INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY THIS MORNING.
JET STREAM ALSO FORECAST TO DEEPEN FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT ACCORDINGLY WITH UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVEL
SHOULD DROP TO 3000 FT THIS EVENING...THEN RISE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SURGE BEFORE DROPPING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. SNOW FORECAST OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

STRONG WINDS WILL AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR TOMORROW. A
COUPLE OF WAVES OF STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONT
IN THE MORNING...AND AGAIN AS THE LOW PASSES BY IN THE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

THE BRUNT OF THE STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY LOOKS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EUREKA FORECAST AREA. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE
WEEKEND. STORM TRACK LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET...ALTHOUGH
THE NEXT LESS SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. HENRY

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN STORMS TONIGHT AND
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. POST-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES
TO THE EAST. FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY WED MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...AND PERSIST INTO WED EVENING. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH
HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING EARLY WED MORNING. TH

&&

.MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS WILL TEMPORARILY EASE TONIGHT DURING A
BRIEF BREAK IN STORMS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WATERS
EARLY WED MORNING. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY EARLY WED
MORNING...FIRST TO THE SOUTH...AND THEN UP NORTH. EXPECT STORM FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND SOLID GALES CLOSER TO SHORE. STEEP
SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS...ACCOMPANIED BY A
LONGER-PERIOD LARGE WEST SWELL. THE WEST SWELL HAS BEEN HOVERING
NEAR 17 FEET TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 22 FEET
LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. ENP AND SWAN HAVE BACKED OFF SWELL
HEIGHTS WED AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE SURF ADVISORY...AS OPPOSED TO
UPGRADING IT. HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE SWAN AND ENP FOR THE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHTLY MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ENP. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THU. MORE PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT. TH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WHILE NO MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...THE EEL RIVER WILL RISE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AND
EXCEED MONITOR STAGE AT FERNBRIDGE. RAPID SPIKES BELOW FLOOD STAGE
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE NAVARRO AND RUSSIAN RIVERS. SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA WILL RISE QUICKLY AND MAY EXCEED
THEIR BANKS IN MANY AREAS. PONDING WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS. HENRY

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
     FOR THE CAZ003-004-076.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR
     THE CAZ004.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY CAZ001-003.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY CAZ001-002.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY CAZ002.

  NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO
  7 PM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING PZZ450-470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ450-455.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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