Hazardous Seas Warning 64, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
532 AM PDT MON MAY 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEGINNING BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH THE TAIL END OF A FRONT ACROSS NW CA TODAY. SCHC POPS IN
SRN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTY INCREASE HEADING N WITH GREATEST
CHCS OF PRECIP ALONG THE ORCA BORDER. CONTINUE TO EXPECT RAINFALL
TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO MAINLY OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE E BY TUE MORNING BUT MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE E
HALF OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS
SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVING ASHORE BY WED MORNING WELL N OF CWA
BEFORE MOVING ESE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND
THE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT POPS TO A SHOWER
OR TWO. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE WED MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE W COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
MINOR PERTURBATIONS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND QUICK MOVEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL INHIBIT
PRECIP ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PRECIP CHCS
BEGIN TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE E PAC. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN RESPECT TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY BUT A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN STORE HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK. BC &&

.AVIATION...12Z MONDAY-12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z TODAY ALONG THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF
KACV AHEAD OF AND ALONG A A WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
CEILINGS WILL TREND HIGHER AND BECOME LARGELY VFR FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR HUMBOLDT BAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN INTERIOR LOCALES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BETTWY
&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL REMAIN MUCH WEAKER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 25
KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AND
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE HOISTED A
GALE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR ZONE 450
WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 35KT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY WIND
DRIVEN...WITH STEEP WIND WAVES IN EXCESS OF 11 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN A
PROLONGED GALE EVENT IS HIGHEST. BETTWY
&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCHES FROM TUE MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING
FOR PZZ455-470-475.
SCA UNTIL TUE MORNING FOR PZZ455-475.
SCA FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WED FOR PZZ450.
SCA FROM 6 PM PDT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING FOR PZZ470.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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