Hazardous Seas Warning 62, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
253 PM PDT THU APR 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT BRINGING A WELL DESERVED
DRY SPELL ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NW CA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN ITS
WAKE. CLEARING SKIES MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST INLAND
OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE PRECLUDING ANY
WIDESPREAD FORMATION AS RADATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE E PAC ON FRI...WITH ITS
AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP WITH
THE BUILDING RIDGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH...THAT WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
INLAND WILL WILL RISE A LITTLE EACH DAY...PEAKING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THE COAST WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH
WARMING WITH THE NORTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE COOL OCEAN WATER.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST. UP TO THIS POINT...MODELS
HAVE FALLEN INTO TWO CAMPS IN REGARDS TO THIS TROUGH AND ITS
IMPACTS ON NRN CA. THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS FEATURE FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE (NO PRECIP AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPS) TO
HOLD OVER OUR AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS
HAD BEEN DIGGING THE TROUGH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH SIGNALING YET
ANOTHER COOL AND WET PERIOD FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HPC
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN FAVORING THE ECMWF...BUT WITH SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TRANSITION SEASON...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS AND POPS WERE MADE. TO THROW ANOTHER WRINKLE INTO THE FCST,
TODAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
POSITIONS...BUT CONVERGING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION. NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST (AND DROP AS FAR SOUTH) AS
THE ECMWF INDICATES...WHICH FAVORS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER
SOLUTION. THIS PATTERN SHIFT MAY BE SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE
DRY SEASON FOR US...BUT STAY TUNED AS COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS STILL
STRUGGLING AND ITS JUST TOO EARLY TO CALL AT THIS TIME. JCA

&&

.MARINE...9 TO 10 FT WNW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD REACH NEAR GALE FORCE
WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE ISSUED GALE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCHES
ACCORDINGLY...AS WIND WAVES WILL ALSO BUILD RAPIDLY. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF LULL IN GALE FORCE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT
MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD SAT AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HENRY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL RESULT IN A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AS
WINDS DECOUPLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. HENRY

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON PZZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT FRIDAY PZZ455-475.
GALE AND HAZ SEAS WATCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
PZZ455-475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
209 PM PDT THU APR 29 2010

CAZ001>004-076-302115-
REDWOOD COAST-MENDOCINO COAST-NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
209 PM PDT THU APR 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.