Hazardous Seas Warning 59, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
255 PM PDT SAT APR 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WEST COAST WILL
BRING GUSTY WIND AND RAIN...AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COAST...FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH OF 40 N AS IT
NEARS THE WEST COAST...SO THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVIER IN THE REGION NEAR AND SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON THE RADAR
AND VIS IMAGERY. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE MAIN
TROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE LI
OVER THE AREA...MIGRATING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY...DUE TO MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPPER LOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER FORECAST ISSUE
WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE BEACHES...EXPOSED COASTAL HEADLANDS AND
UPPER RIDGELINES. INCLUDED MENTION OF STRONG GUSTS IN THE ZONES BUT
HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY AS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
NOT COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. FOR THE LONGER TERM...MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF...AND THE DIFFERENCES MAGNIFY
THROUGH TIME. MADE MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR TUESDAY
AND BEYOND FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...WITH LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. CMC

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAL/OR BORDER PRODUCING
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN CAL COAST TODAY WILL LIFT OFF
TO THE N THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUN WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE SE WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN THEN DIMINISH
SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES E. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ACCOMPANYING GALES. THERE AREA A FEW
GUSTS IN THE OUTER WATERS THAT MAY REACH UP TO 50 KTS. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO FALL BELOW 15 KTS TUE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
FALLING INTO AGREEMENT ONE BY ONE. THE EC HAS LED THE WAY AND IS NOW
JOINED BY THE GFS WITH OTHERS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW. AS SUCH THE MAJOR
CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST IS FROM LATE TUE INTO WED AND ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS HAVE BEEN SOUTHERLY IN THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...AND WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FALL INTO
PLACE THE WINDS AND BEEN CHANGED TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
REGARDLESS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AT MOST.
THANKS TO NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL GENERATION REGION...THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL SPEAK OF THROUGH THE PERIOD. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NW OF CRESCENT CITY HAS CAUSED
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE REGIONS AIRPORTS TODAY. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRAIPSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY CAUSING LOCALLY
LOWER CEILINGS INTO MVFR RANGE. OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER SCATTERED DECKS AND AN INCREASING
HIGH OVERCAST. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SUN.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. BFG

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
ZONE 450 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON
ZONE 455 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING
ZONES 470 AND 475 GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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