Gale Watch 4, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
125 PM PST FRI JAN 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND AND MORE RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN THE IMPACTS OF
THE NEXT STORM FOR SUNDAY.

COLD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THERMAL
INSTABILITY AND UPPER FORCING GIVING RISE TO SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...AROUND 2500 FEET...AND
WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE ON
THE DECLINE THIS EVENING...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT PROBABLY KICKING UP MORE SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET MAY REACH 2 OR EVEN 3
INCHES DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AT THIS POINT IS FAIRLY LOW SO WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE ANY
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW.

OUR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHRINKING WITH EVERY
RUN...WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PREDICTED FOR TOMORROW NOW LOOKING
PRETTY TENUOUS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE JUST
OUTSIDE 160W...WITH A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY FALL NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
WET AND WINDY DAY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH AT THE COAST
AND PROBABLY HIGHER ALONG THE RIDGES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BOOST SNOW LEVELS CONSIDERABLY EVEN GIVEN
THE SYSTEM'S MORNING ARRIVAL TIME...BUT SNOW LEVEL RECOVERY IN THE
TRINITY VALLEYS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. STILL...CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST ALL MAJOR PASSES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SNOW
LEVEL. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A TROUGH AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RAIN EVENT FOR LATE WEEK. GIVEN RECENT
PERFORMANCE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ALL POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. BURGER

&&

.AVIATION...A SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SCT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS. ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES...INCLUDING KUKI...A PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION
DEVELOPS. HENRY

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SWELL HEIGHTS HAVE CONTINUED TO RUN MORE THAN A FEW
FEET TOO HIGH TODAY. HAVE LOWERED SWELL HEIGHTS ACCORDINGLY FOR THE
SWELL COMING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECTING A PEAK BELOW THE
ADVERTISED 16 TO 18 FT. WE ARE GOING WITH A PEAK OF 14 TO 15 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW ON
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SOLID GALE FORCE
WIND EVENT TO THE WATERS...WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. IN ADDITION...ASSOCIATED LARGE SWELL WILL
PUSH IN FOR MONDAY...WITH A PEAK OF 20 FT EXPECTED. THIS IS STILL
UNDER THE ENP FORECAST PEAK OF 23+ FT MONDAY. WIND WAVES WILL
CERTAINLY BECOME HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. GALE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCHES
WERE POSTED ACCORDINGLY. BREAKERS OVER 20 FT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AS WELL FOR MONDAY. HENRY

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     PZZ450-455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     PZZ470-475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING PZZ470-475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
800 AM PST FRI JAN 22 2010

CAZ001-002-231430-
REDWOOD COAST-MENDOCINO COAST-
800 AM PST FRI JAN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ003-004-076-231430-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-UPPER TRINITY RIVER-MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
400 AM PST FRI JAN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE
2500 FEET TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EUREKA.