Gale Watch 11, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
207 PM PDT TUE APR 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND MILD WEATHER. A WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
WELL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY WHERE A
FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ONCE AGAIN HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REDWOOD INTERIOR DUE TO BETTER COVERAGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND THE FACT THAT PERSISTENT SCT SHRA THIS AFTN SHOULD HAVE
DECREASED SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS TO THE POINT OF INHIBITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS MAY INSTEAD SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING. THERE
IS NOT MUCH TO DISSECT WITH THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN TO NOTE THAT THE
BULK OF THE FORCING IS OFF TO THE NORTH AND PREICP WILL TAIL OFF
RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG A WEAK FRONT. TIMING IS WELL
AGREED UPON BY NEIGHBORS AND FOLLOWED RFC GUIDANCE FOR QPF FCST. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PREFERED GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES LATE THIS WEEK AS A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURS INTO FRI
TO BE FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER
THE WEEKEND. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE SAT AFTN-MON PERIOD
WILL HOLD CHANCES FOR MINOR PRECIP... ALTHOUGH NONE OF IT
NECESSARILY SIGNIFICANT. COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS AND MINOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CLIMO POPS AT THIS
POINT. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ON A THIRD AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST BY DAY 7...WITH HINTS THAT THIS LOW MAY ALSO
CUTOFF. CLARK

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL WITH ISO -SHRA WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT UNDER NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. JCA

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ADVERTISING GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRI NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS COULD
APPROACH 20FT BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND A GALE/HAZ SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. GALE CONDS WITHIN 10NM OF SHORE IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/AREAL COVERAGE IS SHAKY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT WINDS RAMPING BACK LATE SUN INTO MON.
JCA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ076.
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS ALL WATERS THROUGH WED.
GALE WATCH THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING PZZ470-475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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