Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Kansas City, MO

214 
WWUS53 KEAX 021603
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

MOC033-021612-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100402T1615Z/
CARROLL MO-
1103 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4058 9334 4019 9305 3969 9297 3964 9360
      4007 9383 4057 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1602Z 233DEG 58KT 4053 9383 4030 9360
          3997 9339 3973 9332

$$

MOC041-061-079-081-115-117-129-171-211-021615-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100402T1615Z/
CHARITON MO-LIVINGSTON MO-LINN MO-DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-SULLIVAN MO-
HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-PUTNAM MO-
1103 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
PUTNAM...MERCER...EASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SULLIVAN...GRUNDY...
NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...LINN...LIVINGSTON AND NORTHWESTERN CHARITON
COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

AT 1059 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF EAGLEVILLE TO
SPICKARD TO 11 MILES NORTH OF WHEELING TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF 
WHEELING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY 
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BROOKFIELD...MILAN...MEADVILLE...PRINCETON...GALT...LACLEDE...
  LINNEUS...MERCER...BROWNING...MILL GROVE...HUMPHREYS...OSGOOD...
  HARRIS...PURDIN...SOUTH LINEVILLE...REGER...NEWTOWN...LUCERNE AND
  SAINT CATHERINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. THIS 
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9334 4019 9305 3969 9297 3964 9360
      4007 9383 4057 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1602Z 233DEG 58KT 4053 9383 4030 9360
          3997 9339 3973 9332
WIND...HAIL 80MPH <0.50IN

$$

CDB

311 
WWUS53 KEAX 021611
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

MOC041-061-115-117-021620-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100402T1615Z/
CHARITON MO-LIVINGSTON MO-LINN MO-DAVIESS MO-
1111 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...LINN...
LIVINGSTON AND NORTHWESTERN CHARITON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE 
WARNING HAVE WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 4019 9305 4003 9302 4003 9357 4017 9370
      4057 9400 4058 9334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 233DEG 58KT 4063 9366 4037 9346
          4007 9329

$$

MOC079-081-129-171-211-021615-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100402T1615Z/
GRUNDY MO-SULLIVAN MO-HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-PUTNAM MO-
1111 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
PUTNAM...MERCER...NORTHEASTERN HARRISON...WESTERN SULLIVAN AND GRUNDY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

AT 1109 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF MERCER TO 6 MILES EAST OF
PRINCETON TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MILAN...MERCER...BROWNING...HARRIS...NEWTOWN...REGER AND LUCERNE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS. 
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4019 9305 4003 9302 4003 9357 4017 9370
      4057 9400 4058 9334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 233DEG 58KT 4063 9366 4037 9346
          4007 9329
WIND...HAIL 70MPH <0.50IN

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER NRN COLORADO/SRN WYOMING WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE INTENSE...AND INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL JET. MOST
INFLUENTIAL WAVE FOR SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WAS PROGRESSING INTO NRN NEW
MEXICO LEADING THE COLD CORE ALOFT (LESS THAN -5C AT H7 AND -25C AT
H5) AS THE OVERALL TROUGH STRUCTURE PUSHES INTO A STRONG SERN CONUS
RIDGE...LEADING TO A LIFTING PHASE AS WELL AS REFORMING AN EVEN MORE
INTENSE JET STREAK ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT
BEGAN TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND A NARROW RIBBON OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY (MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG)...LEADING TO A BRIEF
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE ENERGY HAS
ALREADY BEEN EXHAUSTED...WHILE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE DEEPER
CONVECTION LARGELY OUTRAN THE CAA ALOFT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FAILED TO CAPTURE THE NRN EXTENT OF CONVECTION...RATHER
FOCUSING THE BETTER POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHER
THETA-E AIRMASS (WHICH HAS SINCE COME TO FRUITION AS THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NEW MEXICO VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FINALLY BEING FELT TOWARDS
THE SRN PLAINS).

DEEPER MOISTURE WAS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SURGE NORTH INTO SRN KANSAS
(AS NOTED BY ASOS OBSERVATIONS OF A CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER
CIGS)...AIDED BY A 50+KT LLJ...WHILE AN UNSEASONABLY STEEP EML WAS
QUICKLY BEING ERODED BY STRONG CAA ALOFT (00Z RAOB DATA MEASURING H7
TEMPS OF +11C AT KTOP...+7C AT KDDC...AND -4C AT KABQ). AS THE
INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS...MOISTURE WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS (NEAR
+11C DEWPOINTS AT H8)...AND WARM MIXED LAYER ELIMINATION BECOME
COINCIDENT THIS MORNING...EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN
OKLAHOMA TO RACE NORTHEAST AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NWRN
HALF OF THE CWA. SEVERE THREAT STILL REMAINS RATHER LOW TODAY...AS
TOTAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A PREMIUM (MUCAPES AOB 1000
J/KG) DUE TO LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING (OWING TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION)...ALONG WITH RATHER INSIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES (WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE HIGH
PLATEAU TO THE SOUTHWEST...STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL BE RELEGATED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COLD CORE ALOFT WELL TO THE WEST...OR FAR TO THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET WELL TO THE SOUTH). HOWEVER...ONE
CAVEAT TO CONSIDER IS THE MAGNITUDE OF TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC MOMENTUM
ROTATING TO THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IMPINGING ON THE
WARM SECTOR. BY SOME MODEL FORECASTS...BULK 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES REACH
A RIDICULOUS 80-100KT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF A PORTION OF THIS
MOMENTUM COULD BE TRANSLATED TO THE SFC (ALONG WITH THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION SPEED OF ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS)...A FEW HIGHER WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DOUBTS THAT ANY
CONVECTIVE CELL COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH IN SUCH AN EXTREME
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO YIELD A PALPABLE SVR THREAT.

STILL SOME CONCERN REGARDING POSSIBLE HYDROLOGY ISSUES...THOUGH WITH
LATEST HEADWATER GUIDANCE RISING SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO THE RECENT
WARM DRY WEATHER...AND THE ASSUMED FORWARD SPEED OF THE
PRECIPITATION ECHOES...FEEL THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED (THOUGH A FEW OF THE MORE SENSITIVE SMALLER
BASIN MAY STILL BE AFFECTED). OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A RATHER RAPID
CESSATION FROM WEST TO EAST OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...SUCH
THAT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE MOVED
INTO ERN MISSOURI.

REALLY NO COLD AIR TO SPEAK OF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS THE
PREVAILING FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL...AWAITING THE NEXT SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS EMANATING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. HAVE ADVERTISED
TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY...WITH A RESUMPTION
OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...REPRESENTING A FORECAST
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE (AND INDEED MAY NEED
TO BOOST TEMPS SUNDAY ANOTHER CATEGORY IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE). ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
BEYOND...ALTHOUGH MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION
FAMILIAR FOR NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. INITIAL ROUND MAY BE
MONDAY MORNING...AS A HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS SURGES BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAR
BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN COINCIDENT WITH MUCH STEEPER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND LIFT THROUGH FLOW ACROSS STACKED 305-310K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. KEPT WEATHER MENTION IN THE LOWER CHANCE
CATEGORY...BUT FEEL A MUCH STRONGER MENTION IS INEVITABLE.

21

&&

.AVIATION...

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES...BUT A RATHER BUMPY RIDE THROUGH THE 2-4KFT LEVEL IS
EXPECTED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL TARGETED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOW. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED GENERALLY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCAL IFR IN THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS.

COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 00Z...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT
WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
555 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
WINDS...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. WHILE THE RAPID EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF RAINFALL
SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT...SOME OF THE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE SMALLER STREAMS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT...BRINGING THE END
TO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL BRING THE PERIODIC THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A SEVERE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1014 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE PLATTE CITY       39.31N 94.75W
04/02/2010                   PLATTE             MO   STORM CHASER

            KANSAS CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD SIGNS WITH CONCRETE
            BASES BLOWN OVER

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1015 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 N LEES SUMMIT         38.95N 94.38W
04/02/2010  E70 MPH          JACKSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE PIECE OF SHEET METAL BLEW ACROSS I-470 AND TWO CARS
            BLOWN OFF THE ROAD

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1020 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 N GLADSTONE           39.26N 94.56W
04/02/2010  E60 MPH          CLAY               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1025 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEES SUMMIT             38.92N 94.38W
04/02/2010  E60.00 MPH       JACKSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     TSTM WND GST     LATHROP                 39.55N 94.33W
04/02/2010  E70 MPH          CLINTON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS IN DOWNTOWN LATHROP ESTIMATED BETWEEN 60 AND 70
            MPH.

&&

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1039 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     TSTM WND GST     CAMERON                 39.74N 94.24W
04/02/2010  M56 MPH          DEKALB             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED AT THE CAMERON AIRPORT

&&

DDEROCHE