Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/412 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010/
INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER SHORT WAVE LOCATED IN KANSAS. THIS INITIAL
CONVECTION MAY HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SOME AHEAD OF THE
FONT...BUT PROBLEM MAY BE THAT OUTFLOW FROM AFTERNOON STORMS MAY
LEAVE A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THAT MAY FOCUS STORMS ON
AN EAST WEST BOUNDARY THIS EVENING THAT MAY CAUSE CONCERN FOR
FLOODING ISSUES. NOT PLANNING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...AS
FLOODING PROBLEM MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED THAN WIDESPREAD AS GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING MOST AREAS NEED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WOULD BE
NEEDED. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
THIS EVENING.

ONCE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES PAST OVERNIGHT...THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE
ENDING AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR...SO THIS MAY
HAVE TO ADDED ON LATER UPDATES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN AS SOURCE AREA FOR THIS AIR MASS WILL BE FROM THE PLAINS. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY LEADING TO
WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEST COAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO SQUEEZE UPPER
RIDGING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
TRACKING FAIRLY FAR NORTH OF THE CWFA AND ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE DUE TO LACK OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE FOCUSED
FURTHER WEST ACROSS KANSAS. SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY GOING IN
FORECAST GRIDS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. MAY HAVE TO RAISE A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER TO CHANCE CATEGORY AS
EVENT BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.

AFTER THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES PAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A BROADER
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL LIKELY RIDE EVEN FURTHER NORTH OVER THIS RIDGE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE WEEKEND...SO IT LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER.

PC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
UNTIL A FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CAN MOVE THROUGH. SOME
STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING...RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR FOG AT THE KANSAS CITY TAF SITES AND HAVE GONE
DENSE FOG AT THE KSTJ SITE AS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTEST THERE WITH
VERY WET GROUND AND CLEAR SKIES MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY HAVE
TO GO WITH DENSER FOG AT THE KANSAS CITY SITES AS WILL...BUT WANT TO
WATCH THE PRECIPITATION AND SKY TRENDS AND SEE EVENING MODEL UPDATES
BEFORE GOING WITH AN LIFR CATEGORY OF FOG.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1246 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1246 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO GAIN
STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE AS IT
TRACKS TO THE EAST. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER SQUALL
LINE OR COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEMPORARILY STALL OVER SOME LOCATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

CDB

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