Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...

DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK CONFLUENT ZONE
EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S...HAS COMBINED WITH NEAR 90F SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO YIELD
MLCAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. DESPITE POOR LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR AND
ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES...SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER WINDS EXCEEDING 50
KNOTS MAY ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER THAN OTHERWISE
WOULD BE EXPECTED. WATER LOADING IN THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE TOPPED
BY VERY DRY AIR WILL CERTAINLY FAVOR SOME THREAT OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES GENERALLY FALLING IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
HOWEVER WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AS
TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL
PUSH HEAT INDICES TO RIGHT AROUND 105.

AS THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION SHIFTS BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...MID LEVEL BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG SIGNALS OF A PERIOD OF INCREASED MCS ACTIVITY BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. ASSUMING A TYPICAL TRAJECTORY...ACTIVITY ORIGINATING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WOULD PEEL TOWARD THE SSE INTO NRN MO ON A
REPEATED BASIS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/OUTFLOW WILL ALSO GREATLY
IMPACT DAYTIME TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS WELL...BUT WILL HEDGE NRN MO
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR NOW ON SUNDAY...WHILE INCREASING POPS TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL
BECOME NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY AND THEN WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE CAN EXPECT PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...GENERALLY JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE MISSOURI REGION THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID ANY ACTIVITY BEING KICKED OFF OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OR NEAR ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
MAKING IT INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DIFFERING ON TIMING...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THUS
REINFORCING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE
REGION. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE BOUNDARY BE AT THAT TIME.
ASSUMING IT IS IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHERN IOWA-NORTHERN
MISSOURI...HAVE HELD ON TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. HAVE GONE WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY ON. BUT ONCE AGAIN...ANY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WHICH MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONAL THROUGH DAYS 4 TO 7 WITH NO
STRONG CHANGE OF AIRMASS EXPECTED.

BOOKBINDER/NRR

&&

.AVIATION...

AXIS OF RICH GULF MOISTURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND 01Z. WILL GRANT TAFS A TOKEN
/CB/ GROUP FOR NOW AND AMEND IF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THREATENS
ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES...WITH EXPECTATION OF BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH CG LIGHTNING AND STRONG SFC
WIND GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ALONG WEAKLY FOCUSED
STATIONARY FRONT/MOISTURE POOL.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

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