Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Kansas City, MO

FXUS63 KEAX 192107
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/407 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/
BOW ECHO BLEW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AFTER STARTING ITS LIFE
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET...UP
SLOPE WINDS...AND WARM FRONT ALL INTERSECTED. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE SQUALL LINE HAS NOW LEFT THE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOW ON
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED
TO BE. ENVIRONMENT IS WELL WORKED OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE
COMPLEX...SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...HOWEVER LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ANOTHER COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
AGAIN WHICH MIGHT BRING MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB LATELY ON FORECASTING THE TRACK OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...BUT FOR TONIGHT THEY MIGHT BE ONTO
SOMETHING. RUC AND NAM BOTH POINT AT THE H8 WINDS REFOCUSING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND CURRENT H8
PROFILER ARE BACKING THIS UP. THIS SHOULD ASSIST IN RECOVERY IN THE
WAKE OF TODAYS COMPLEX ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.
CAN NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY WE WOULD NOT HAVE A REPEAT EVENT...WITH
CONVECTION STARTING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER ALONG THE FRONT...LIKE THIS MORNING...ONLY TO MOVE EAST LATE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FRONTAL PLACEMENT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH MIGHT KEEP THE STORMS CLOSER TO THE IOWA BORDER THIS TIME AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY RESTRICTED TO THE AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 36
AS A RESULT. ONCE AGAIN...ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NATIONS MID-SECTION. AS A RESULT...ANY PERTURBATIONS THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...WHICH WOULD THEN POSSIBLY AFFECT AREAS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MISSOURI IOWA
BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST...BESIDES THE
THUNDERSTORMS...IS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AND
DEW POINT VALUES INDICATE THAT HEAT INDICES WILL BE KICKING AROUND
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT DIFFICULT TO
CONCEIVE THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME AREAS REACH 105 OR GREATER. ONLY
ISSUE IS CONFIDENCE IN GOING FORECAST NUMBERS. RECENT THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES HAVE ALL SENT OUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH THEN MAKE A
MESS OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
MORE COMPLEXES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED CAREFUL WATCHING AD
EVALUATION EACH MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS STORMS TRACKED.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...STILL AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.
AT THIS TIME THINKING THAT CURRENT CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED ON
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN. THIS MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING
HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP
GOING FOR KSTJ. FURTHER SOUTH...KANSAS CITY TERMINALS MAY MISS OUT
ON THIS CONVECTION...AND WILL ONLY CARRY A CB GROUP AT THIS POINT.
OVERNIGHT...AS THE LLJ VEERS...AND MID LEVEL WAA TAKES PLACE...AREA
AROUND THE TERMINALS MAY BECOME CAPPED...AND STORMS WILL FEED ALONG
THE EDGE OF THIS CAP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AIRPORTS.  DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AT THE TERMINALS AS EXPECTING
THE CAP TO REMAIN...ALTHOUGH MAY BE CLOSE CALL FOR KSTJ.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1008 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-210315-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1008 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAD DEVELOPED INTO A
STRONGER COMPLEX LATE THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...LIKELY REACHING THE
KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER BY 11 PM AND AREAS OF THE CENTRAL OUTLOOK AREA
BY 1 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...HOWEVER INTO LOWER INSTABILITY AND A MUCH MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH MAY REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS THIS
COMPLEX MOVES EAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THIS INITIAL COMPLEX AND BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. PRIMARY THREATS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI IN THE MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

A SECOND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WYOMING
BORDER COULD ALSO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COMPLEX
COULD SERVE TO REDEVELOP STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
NEBRASKA...IOWA AND PERHAPS NORTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF A ST. JOSEPH TO
MOBERLY LINE.

THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES EACH DAY AND
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH...HOWEVER EACH SYSTEM WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RENEWED RIVER
FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
AROUND OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS ON SUNDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
735 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CLARKSDALE         39.83N 94.58W
06/18/2010                   DEKALB             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT...DAMAGE TO A MACHINE SHED AND GRAIN
            ELEVATOR...TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

MDUX