River Flood Warning 74, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

19Z OBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KS. DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NE KS AND THROUGH THE WICHITA AREA. 19Z SOUNDING FROM TOP
SHOWING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO H75 WITH CAPPING INVERSION JUST
BELOW H7 AND TEMP AT THIS LEVEL OF 8C. H5 MID LEVEL JET STREAK HAS
NOW NOSED INTO CENTRAL IOWA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ATTM. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS HAS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED THE
CAP FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM ROUGHLY TOP SOUTHWARD TO ICT. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL AND WIND
ALREADY REPORTED.

AS MID LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG DRYLINE AND EVENTUALLY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT POTENTIALLY OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE.
OVERALL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM SCALE ROTATION
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 50-70KTS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FLOW IS CURRENTLY LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE EXISTING
FRONTAL/DRYLINE POSITION LEADING TO STORM SEEDING AND LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT THUS FOR...ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE TRIED TO BECOME MORE DISCRETE
WITH TIME AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INFLUENCES CONVECTION. THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS ON 19Z TOP SOUNDING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF SUFFICIENT
CAPE OF 400-500 J/KG WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION EXISTS ALONG A
KANSAS CITY TO BETHANY LINE AND FURTHER SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED FREEZING LEVELS
AND -20C HEIGHTS...EXPECT STORM CORES OF 50 DBZ TO ROUGHLY 32FT WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER
2 HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY LEAD TO WINDS
BACKING WITH TIME AS SFC WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST RUC OUTPUT...DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 03Z.
SHOULD STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE AND WINDS ARE ABLE TO BACK
SUFFICIENTLY...A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WITH
TIME. IF SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS NE KS THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION WHERE DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE EXISTING
LINE...MORE OF A LINEAR TRANSITION WILL LIKELY TAKE SHAPE.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE KC TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. A COLD FRONT WL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
ALL THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH A MVFR STRATUS DECK TO DESCEND
SOUTH INTO THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 04Z-07Z. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT
THE CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR BRIEFLY BTWN 08Z-14Z. OTHERWISE...THE COOL
STRATUS WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
608 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-072315-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
608 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 10PM FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A GRANT CITY MISSOURI TO ATCHISON KANSAS LINE AND ALONG
AND NORTH OF A MACON MISSOURI TO BLUE MOUND KANSAS LINE. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM GRANT CITY MISSOURI TO JUST WEST OF TOPEKA
KANSAS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. SEVERAL WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ALREADY WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY METRO.
WHILE CHANCES REMAIN LOW...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AREAS WITHIN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DEROCHE

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