River Flood Warning 320, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/357 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010/
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
HAS DRIVEN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO EXTREME SRN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS FORCED THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE
CWA ...THUS LIMITING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WX TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WAS TRIGGERING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACR PARTS OF
THE SRN CWA. MUCAPES WERE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH STG DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AS A RESULT...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE KC METRO. IN
ADDITION...THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS THIS HAS A
CHANCE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED THE FFA
FOR THE EXTREME SRN CWA ONLY AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE NRN CWA
WILL NOT EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

THE ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WEST CENTRAL MO MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF A TRIPLE POINT IN SCNTRL KS. THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY DISRUPT THE
INFLOW TO THE ELEVATED CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
RACING THROUGH CNTRL NEB. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA TONIGHT. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. A FEW STG TSTMS ARE PSBL BUT THE SVR THREAT LOOK
QUITE LOW.

THE TSTMS WILL END SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT FOR THE ERN GRIDS WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DB

FRIDAY - SATURDAY:
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RELINQUISHES CONTROL AS IT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH FART NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL
FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWARD...LIKELY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS
FRONT SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LOSES ITS SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM AS
THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS HANG UP IN THE FRONT MAKES THE
FORECAST QUITE CHALLENGING AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES CONSIDERABLY
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY BUT DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE BOUNDARY MAKES POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST NOTICEABLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DURING
THE TRANSITION FROM COLD FRONT TO WARM FRONT THE ECMWF LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTHWARD MUCH FASTER WHILE THE GFS LANGUISHES THE FRONT
ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY. CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD BUT BY MONDAY IT APPEARS
THAT WE SHOULD BE IN A FAIRLY LARGE WARM SECTOR AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL SEND
ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF...PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE FOR KMKC TERMINAL WHERE
NORTHERN EDGE OF LAST LINE OF REPEATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND AWAY FROM
THE TERMINAL. KMCI/KSTJ SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

EXPECT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WNW LATE THIS
EVENING. LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER SD EXPECTED TO SINK SSE
OVERNIGHT AND ALL MODELS POINT TO THESE CEILINGS SPREADING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
MORNING. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ043-053-054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ057-060.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
705 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-170015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
705 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE LAST
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WHERE STORMS MAY TRACK REPEATEDLY OVER THE
SAME AREAS...WILL BE SOUTH OF AN OLATHE KANSAS TO SEDALIA LINE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON HAS LEFT THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED OVER THESE AREAS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

THE EXTENSIVE RAIN COOLED AIR AND CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING STORMS HAS
EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF ANY STRONG DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE AIRMASS SHOULD
HAVE SUFFICIENTLY STABILIZED BY THE TIME ANY STORMS MOVE IN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE IOWA-
MISSOURI STATE LINE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY OF THE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY RAINFALL TOTALS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MJ

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