River Flood Warning 257, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
201 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT NOW BISECTING
THE CWA. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN OVERALL WESTERLIES
CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS. MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED LARGER
SCALE ASCENT. AS SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE SFC
BOUNDARY...EXPECT MORE SFC BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SFC BOUNDARY ALREADY THROUGH A UNIONVILLE TO KANSAS
CITY LINE...EXPECT BULK OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW COUPLED WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO ABOUT H825 HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED
WITH RICH LLVL MOISTURE...IE TDS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...THE AREA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES AND EVEN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS KANSAS HAS ONLY
CONTRIBUTED TO ABOUT 20-30 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO EXHIBIT PULSE
TO MULTICELL CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ROBUST UPDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE
AMPLE INSTABILITY GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...THE
MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STRONGER CONVECTION. PROBABILITIES FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW GIVEN FREEZING LEVELS OF 14-15KFT.

LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. HAVE TAILORED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS TREND WITH DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

DEROCHE

SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE (MON-SUN)...

WITH THE MID-LVL RIDGING AXIS BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
HEART OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...ITS HARD TO FIND MUCH REASON TO
MAKE CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  BY MONDAY...THE
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SE.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM
NICELY GIVEN WARMER AIR REMAINING ALOFT AND FULL SUNSHINE.  THE MID
TO UPR 80S SHOULD BE PREVAILING.  BY MONDAY NIGHT A SECONDARY VERY
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT A MUCH LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE MID-SECTION OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW NR NML TEMPS
AND COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.  ONLY POINT OF CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BIT OF GROUND FOR EACH MORNING IN VALLEYS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES AND SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID-LVL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EWRD
SLIGHTLY...EXPOSING THE CWA TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FETCH OF SWLY
FLOW IN THE LOW-LVLS.  AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED READINGS INTO THE
LOWER 90S SAT/SUN.  MEDIUM RANGE FCST IS BASED HIGHLY ON THE
GEFS/ECMWF...WITH THE 06Z/12Z GFS/GEM A STRONG OUTLIER REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF TS ALEX.  WILL DISREGARD THE GFS/GEM ATTM.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEARING THE KMKC TERMINAL...HAVING
ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KSTJ AND KMCI. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN OVERALL WESTERLIES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ATTM. AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT. WITH FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS...LATEST THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...CANNOT
RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS. THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PAOLA KANSAS LINE. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF OF TODAYS
ACTIVITY WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DEROCHE

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