River Flood Warning 231, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
838 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.UPDATE...

MAIN FOCUS FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS IS FOCUSED ON THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS KANSAS AND WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.

ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS TIMED TO
MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEIR INTENSITY. 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
FROM TOPEKA AND OMAHA POINT TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH LAPSE RATES IN
TOPEKA BEING ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WHILE OMAHA IS CAPPED OFF.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE ACTIVITY FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MIGHT STILL
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...BUT THAT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT STARTED IN WESTERN KANSAS HAS
BEGUN TO CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX...WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT AS YET ANOTHER
LINE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST CURRENTLY...FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS. DEEP LAYER WINDS ACROSS
KANSAS ARE FROM JUST ABOUT DUE SOUTH...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
COMPLEX WILL ONLY START TURNING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEMS COLD POOL STARTS AFFECTING THE STORMS MOTION...AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO VEER THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS
A RESULT...TIME THIS SYSTEM INTO EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS/MISSOURI IS
DIFFICULT...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THE AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT PRIMARY THREAT IS STILL THOUGHT TO BE FROM THE MASSIVE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN THESE STORMS WILL PUT DOWN WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE
FLOODING.

FOR THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT HOURS...MOVED THE FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...AND TRIMMED QPF. LEFT WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS GOING
FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT EXPANDED THE HIGHER QPF A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AS ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX QUITE OFTEN DEVELOP A MIND OF
THERE OWN.

CUTTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/435 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010/
OPERATIONAL MODELS HANDLING LARGE SCALE FEATURES OVERALL...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE MESOSCALE WILL DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION...
NO CLEAR GUIDANCE BEING OFFERED. HRRR AND HWT MESOSCALE MODELS
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER EVEN THESE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME INCONSISTENCY. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...FEEL SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING STORMS ALONG AXIS OF HIGH THETAE MARGINAL BULK SHEAR
VALUES. LOOKING TOWARD EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SYNOPTIC FRONT
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR EVENTUAL MESOSCALE COMPLEX EVOLUTION.
SCATTERED STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AND DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...AND LIKELY WILL BE SUSTAINED MAINLY BY DIURNAL
HEATING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND LLJ WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE DEEPER IN THE WARM SECTOR
ALONG SYNOPTIC AND MESO BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MCS. DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD AND OVER
THE BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS OF 1.80-1.95 DEPICTED ACROSS CFWA AT 12 UTC
THIS MORNING...WITH PROJECTED INCREASES TO 2.0 TO 2.5 POSSIBLE BY 12
UTC MONDAY. THUS ANY COMPLEX THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA WILL BE
PROLIFIC RAINFALL PRODUCER...THUS HAVE BOOSTED QPF FOR THE AREA MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY MCS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

PASSAGE OF THE MCS THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA EXPECTED
BY MID-MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP STABILIZE ENVIRONMENT DURING
THE BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY. EVEN STILL...GIVEN RESIDENT
INSTABILITY THAT WILL REMAIN...CANNOT DISCOUNT ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM REFORMING ALONG REMNANTS OF SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT WILL LINGER...THUS
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WEIGHTING HIGHER
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE MORNING.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS CFWA.  ISENTROPIC FORCING
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH BETTER LIFT ORIENTED ALONG SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. THUS...KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WEIGHTING GREATER POPS TOWARD SOUTHERN
TIER. ON TUESDAY...PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH...COUPLED DURING
PERIOD OF PRIME SURFACE HEATING...LIKELY WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...SO CONTINUED CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FEEL THREAT OF RAIN WILL FINALLY
RELEASE GRIP ON CFWA FOR A LITTLE WHILE...KEEPING TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN CFWA.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE...SO ONLY TWEAKED SLIGHTLY.

24

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY:
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST EVEN LOWER THAN
IN THE NEAR TERM. BUT PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH SOUTHWESTERN
TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND RIDGING
OVER THE GENERALLY OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PERIODS OF STORMS. TIMING OUT THIS FAR IS TOO DIFFICULT BUT
INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE POPS...AROUND 25-30% FOR AREAS THAT SEEM
MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM DUE TO CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE REMNANTS BUT THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR CIGS.  BELIEVE THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 04-06 UTC...THEN AS LLJ ENHANCES
ISENTROPIC FORCING AND THUS MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG SHALLOW
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...EXPECT CIGS WILL BEGIN TO CRASH
INTO AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY.  QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALSO WILL
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE TRANSLATION AND DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXPECT CONVECTION PERCOLATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS A SMALL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS LLJ
KICKS IN.  CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY
MERGE WITH MCS ADVECTING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN OK/SRN
KANSAS...WHICH MAY PROLONG TSRA THREAT AND INTENSITY. VARIOUS
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION... THUS INITIAL COVERED SCENARIO WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO GROUP...THEN INTRODUCED A PERIOD WHERE MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
WILL OCCUR WITH TSRA.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSRA THREAT
WILL WANE BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND PSBLY VSBYS
WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

24

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
704 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-141115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-
ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
704 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT OF THE ACTIVITY
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH A LARGE
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNRISE MONDAY IS LOW...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
WORSENING RIVER FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY LIMITED TO CENTRAL MISSOURI. BY
THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL HAVE LIKELY SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL AS FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED THROUGH MONDAY.

CUTTER

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