Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2010

River Flood Warning 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

January 19, 2010Bates County, Cass County, Henry County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at Jan 19, 2010, 7:59 AM CST for Bates County, Cass County, Henry County, Missouri. It took effect at Jan 19, 2010, 8:20 AM CST. It was in force for 48 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 19, 2010, 7:59 AM CST (13:59 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 19, 2010, 8:20 AM CST
Expired
Jan 21, 2010, 8:43 AM CST
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Kansas City, MO
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Bates County, MO, Cass County, MO, Henry County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point South Grand River near Urich (URHM7).

Action stage
21 ft
Minor stage
24 ft
Moderate stage
26 ft
Major stage
33 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06921600, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

110 
WGUS43 KEAX 191359
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED          
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
759 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010
  

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH

AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BATES...CASS...HENRY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC013-037-083-201359-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0002.100119T1420Z-100121T0650Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.100119T1420Z.100119T1800Z.100120T0650Z.UU/
759 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  7:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 24.4 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   23.9   TUE 07 AM   24.4 THIS AFTERNOON

$$
8 follow-up statements
666 
WGUS83 KEAX 191646
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
1046 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BATES...CASS...HENRY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CASS...COOPER...
HENRY...JOHNSON...SALINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-201646-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0003.100120T0640Z-100122T0300Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.100120T0640Z.100120T1800Z.100121T0300Z.UU/
1046 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 10:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 20.9 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 20.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE CREEK BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BIG CREEK
  BLAIRSTOWN      20   18.7   TUE 10 AM   20.9 EARLY WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON

$$

MOC053-195-201645-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100123T1047Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.100119T1448Z.100121T0000Z.100122T1047Z.NO/
1046 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  9:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.1 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY 
  MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   24.0   TUE 10 AM   25.1 WEDNESDAY EVENING

$$

MOC013-037-083-201645-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100123T0200Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.100119T1545Z.100121T0000Z.100122T0200Z.UU/
1046 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* AT  7:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 25.5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   23.9   TUE 07 AM   25.5 WEDNESDAY EVENING

$$

ACH
216 
WGUS83 KEAX 201119
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
519 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BATES...CASS...
COOPER...HENRY...JOHNSON...SALINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-211119-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100122T1400Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.100120T1127Z.100120T1800Z.100121T1400Z.UU/
519 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* AT  5:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 21.0 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 20.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE CREEK BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BIG CREEK
  BLAIRSTOWN      20   19.8   WED 05 AM   21.0 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC053-195-211118-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100123T2125Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.100119T1448Z.100120T1800Z.100122T2125Z.NO/
519 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  4:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.8 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   25.4   WED 05 AM   25.8 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC013-037-083-211118-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100123T1200Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.100120T0035Z.100121T0600Z.100122T1200Z.UU/
519 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* AT  3:19 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY YESTERDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 25.5 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   23.8   TUE 03 PM   25.5 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

$$
574 
WGUS83 KEAX 201717
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
1117 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BATES...CASS...
COOPER...HENRY...JOHNSON...SALINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-211717-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100123T0045Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.100120T1230Z.100121T0600Z.100122T0045Z.UU/
1117 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* AT 11:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.1 FEET BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 20.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE CREEK BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BIG CREEK
  BLAIRSTOWN      20   20.3   WED 11 AM   21.1 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

$$

MOC053-195-211716-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100124T0824Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.100119T1448Z.100121T0600Z.100123T0824Z.NO/
1117 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT 10:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   26.2   WED 11 AM   26.5 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

$$

MOC013-037-083-211716-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100123T1647Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.100120T0132Z.100121T0600Z.100122T1647Z.UU/
1117 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* AT  8:48 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.6 FEET BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   24.7   WED 09 AM   25.6 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

$$

ACH
903 
WGUS83 KEAX 210144
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
744 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN 
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BATES...CASS...
HENRY...JOHNSON

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...COOPER...SALINE


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-220144-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100123T0600Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.100120T1230Z.100121T1200Z.100122T0600Z.UU/
744 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* AT 7:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.8 FEET BY 
  THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 20.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE CREEK BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BIG CREEK
  BLAIRSTOWN      20   20.3   WED 07 PM   20.8 THURSDAY MORNING

$$

MOC053-195-220143-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100124T0824Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.100119T1448Z.100121T0600Z.100123T0824Z.NO/
744 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT 6:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   26.4   WED 07 PM   26.5 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING

$$

MOC013-037-083-220143-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100124T0000Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.100120T0132Z.100122T0000Z.100123T0000Z.UU/
744 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* AT 5:37 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.3 FEET BY 
  THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY 
  EVENING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   24.9   WED 06 PM   25.3 THURSDAY EVENING

$$
442 
WGUS83 KEAX 210741
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
141 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...COOPER...SALINE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH 
  WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BATES...CARROLL...
CASS...HENRY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-220741-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100124T1100Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.100119T1448Z.100121T1200Z.100123T1100Z.NO/
141 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT 12:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   26.4   THU 01 AM   26.5 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC013-037-083-220740-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100124T0000Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.100120T0132Z.100122T0000Z.100123T0000Z.UU/
141 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* AT  5:37 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.3 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   24.9   WED 06 PM   25.3 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC033-220740-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100122T1205Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.100121T0700Z.100121T1200Z.100121T1205Z.UU/
141 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* AT  1:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.0 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING UNDEVELOPED AREAS ALONG THE 
  CREEK BEGINS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

WAKENDA CREEK
  CARROLLTON      16   16.0   THU 01 AM   16.0 THIS MORNING

$$

NRR
930 
WGUS83 KEAX 211056
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
456 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER 
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH 
  WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BATES...CARROLL...
CASS...CHARITON...COOPER...HENRY...LINN...LIVINGSTON...SALINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-221056-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100124T1100Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.100119T1448Z.100121T1200Z.100123T1100Z.NO/
456 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  4:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   26.5   THU 05 AM   26.5 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-221055-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-100123T0130Z/
/SNZM7.1.ER.100121T1500Z.100121T1800Z.100122T0130Z.NO/
456 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER.
* AT  3:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* AT 26.0 FEET...RURAL LAND ADJACENT TO THE RIVER IS FLOODED.
* AT 23.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND 1 TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  SUMNER          26   24.5   THU 04 AM   26.5 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC013-037-083-221055-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100124T0000Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.100120T0132Z.100122T0000Z.100123T0000Z.UU/
456 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* AT  5:37 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.3 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   24.9   WED 06 PM   25.3 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC033-221055-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100122T1205Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.100121T0700Z.100121T0945Z.100121T1205Z.UU/
456 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* AT  4:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.0 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING UNDEVELOPED AREAS ALONG THE 
  CREEK BEGINS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

WAKENDA CREEK
  CARROLLTON      16   16.0   THU 04 AM   16.0 THIS MORNING

$$

NRR
824 
WGUS83 KEAX 211256
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
656 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BATES...CASS...
COOPER...HENRY...SALINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-221256-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100124T1100Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.100119T1448Z.100121T1800Z.100123T1100Z.NO/
656 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  6:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   26.5   THU 07 AM   26.5 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC013-037-083-221255-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100124T0000Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.100120T0132Z.100122T0000Z.100123T0000Z.UU/
656 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* AT  5:37 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.3 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   24.9   WED 06 PM   25.3 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC033-221200-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100122T1200Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.100121T0700Z.100121T0945Z.100121T1200Z.UU/
656 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* AT  6:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING UNDEVELOPED AREAS ALONG THE 
  CREEK BEGINS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

WAKENDA CREEK
  CARROLLTON      16   16.0   THU 06 AM   13.8 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

NRR
311 
WGUS83 KEAX 211443
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
843 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BATES...CASS...HENRY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC013-037-083-211513-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100124T0000Z/
/URHM7.1.ER.100120T0132Z.100120T2337Z.100121T0752Z.UU/
843 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* AT  8:06 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  1:52 AM THURSDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 21.2 FEET BY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   23.3   THU 08 AM   22.7 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jan 19, 5:36 AM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 19, 5:36 AM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
536 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF EXPANSIVE STRATUS AND DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE CWA.  VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO BE MUCH MORE
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...DUE IN PART TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING WITH
AN EAST WIND BETWEEN 5-10 MPH.  DESPITE THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BOUNDARY LAYER CAA HAS BEEN
LIMITED SIGNIFICANTLY.  CURRENTLY ONLY AREAS BELOW FREEZING ARE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE IOWA BORDER REGION.  FURTHER SOUTH...A WELL DEFINED
SFC WARM FRONT FALLS ALONG THE OZARKS WITH UPR 40S PINNED IN
SOUTHERN MO.

THE SHORT TERM FCST TURNS MORE INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK.  NOSE OF AN INCREDIBLY
INTENSE UPR JET IS NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH ONTO THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...DRIVING SEVERAL PAC S/W TROUGHS TOWARDS THE CONUS. THE FIRST
SUCH WAVE IS NOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING PRODUCING
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSED CALIFORNIA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...EXTENSIVE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS. UNLIKE THE PAST
FEW DAYS...AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SFC CYCLOGENESIS
TO OUR SW AND SFC RIDGING TO THE NE WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
EASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY.
THIS INCREASED MIXING SHOULD ALLOW VIS TO INCREASE STEADILY THIS
MORNING. WILL NOT MODIFY THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT IT MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. BY THE AFTN HOURS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
COMMENCE IN THE LOWER LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE SFC WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER MAY DEVELOP AFTER NOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
TRICKY TODAY...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS ALOFT AND REINFORCING WEAK
CAA FROM THE NE...AREAS OF NORTHERN MO MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH PAST
THE FREEZING MARK.

BY THIS EVE...FAIRLY INTENSE AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COMMENCE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING S/W. EXPECTING AN ELONGATED AREA OF
DRIZZLE/SHOWERS BY THE EVENING HOURS LIFTING FROM SW TO NE. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AT LEAST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH DECENT SIGNALS
FROM SEVERAL ELEVATED CONVECTION PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISO
THUNDER MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

OF MORE QUESTION WILL BE THE SFC THERMAL PROFILE IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE GFS/ECMWF
WHICH HAS INITIALIZED VERY WELL WITH CURRENT READINGS.  THE NAM HAS
BEEN TOO COLD AT THE SFC AND HAS TOO MUCH CAA IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.  WHILE READINGS MAY ONLY CLIMB JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
NOR THEN CWA THIS AFTN...GFS/EC/GEM AND EVEN LATEST NAM SUGGEST A
MUCH DEEPER AND FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AS THE S/W
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPR
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY WARM SURGE OF AIR TO BE PULLED
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HAVE LEVELED OFF TEMPS AND EVEN INDICATED
RISING TEMPS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH DAYBREAK WED.

FEEL THE ONLY CHC OF ANY LIGHT ICING WILL BE ALONG THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF MISSOURI AND THAT CHANCE MAY BE SLIGHT.  A
COUPLE FACTORS WEIGH IN...FIRST AND FOREMOST BEING INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WAA FROM APPROACHING SFC LOW.  SECONDLY...GIVEN THE
WARM PROFILES ALOFT...ANY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY
TRY TO MIX DOWN WARMER AIR TO THE SFC. NEVERTHELESS...A LIGHT ICING
UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SFCS NEAR THE
IA BOARDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO PLANS TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WX
PRODUCT ATTM...AND WILL ALLOW THE NEXT FCSTER TO REEVALUATE THROUGH
THE DAY AS TEMPS AND TRENDS CAN BE VISUALIZED.

A BRIEF BREAK MAY ARRIVE FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
AS THE S/W RAPIDLY LIFTS NE AND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE SETS IN.  HAVE
LOWERED POPS SOME WHICH MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER (MORE LIKELY
IN THE AFTN). STRATUS DOES LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE ABOVE THE LAYER MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH OF HWY 50
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR DROPPING IN THE AFTN.

NEXT S/W QUICKLY RACES IN BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE FOR WED NIGHT AND
THU.  EC REMAINS A STRONG AND NORTHERN OUTLIER ATTM...WITH ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE FURTHER SOUTH AND LESS INTENSE.  NEVERTHELESS WILL LOWER
POPS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF QPF COULD NEARLY
ASSURE MINOR RIVER FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

UPR STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NICE WARMUP
FOR FRI AND SAT.  WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR
FRIDAY (MID-UPR 50S) ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL DOES EXIST. MY MAIN POINT OF
CONTENTION IS A PURELY SE COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
TYPICALLY NOT A GOOD WARMING WIND FOR THE CWA ESPECIALLY WITH VERY
MOIST GROUND COVER REMAINING. STILL...MID TO UPR 40S SEEMS VERY
PLAUSIBLE.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE VSBYS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS AS SFC WINDS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED. THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY BE REDUCED TO BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES THROUGH
14Z...VSBYS WILL SEE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AS SFC WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
ALSO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN HEIGHT THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO DAYTIME INSOLATION.
REGARDLESS CIGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 FEET. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO MISSOURI. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH FROM
SRN MO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INSURE GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
TONIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING VSBYS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 19, 5:53 AM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
553 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
553 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR ONE HALF MILE IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES MAY RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS EVENING AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN...TEMPERATURES IN EXTREME
NORTHERN MISSOURI MAY HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH AND MAINLY OCCURRING ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER MOSTLY FROZEN GROUNDS
MAY LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING INCREASING AT THAT
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER SPOTTERS IN AREAS
NEAR THE IOWA BORDER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WHICH
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DUX

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 19, 6:51 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningEAXCooper, Saline5 days
Jan 19, 10:12 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningEAXCass, Henry, Johnson38 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2010Every river flood warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.