River Flood Warning 142, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1253 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/443 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010/
A MULTITUDE OF WEATHER HAZARDS TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EAST-WEST WARM FRONT LYING NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAS FAILED
TO LIFT NORTH TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIR LEFT OVER FROM LAST
NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS ELEVATED CONVECTION. THINK THIS IS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY WILL STAY UNTIL THE KS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES IT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC PROGS INCREASING SSW H8 JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS AND OVER THE TOP OF THE STALLED FRONT WHICH WILL ADVECT A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A STEADY INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. PULSE LIKE NATURE OF
STORMS AND LIMITED ROTATION WILL FAVOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. ELEVATED CONVECTION ALSO SEEN IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVER EAST CENTRAL KS AND WEST CENTRAL MO WHICH WILL TO SOME
DEGREE TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

ALSO WATCHING THE SEVERE STORMS WHICH CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST AND INTO NW AND WEST CENTRAL MO LATE THIS EVENING. SINCE
THE UPPER FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT AND THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...IT IS THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH WILL HAVE THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO TRAIN AND RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS POSSIBLY PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS INHIBITED THE EROSION OF THE CIN
LEFT OVER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.

LIKE THE LATEST HPC QPF AREA FOR HEAVY RAINS AND GIVEN HOW MUCH RAIN
FELL WITH LAST NIGHTS MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA
CAN JUSTIFY THE 1-2 INCH RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH AXIS STILL
WEST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE EAST SO MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING THURSDAY
FORECAST.

SHOULD SEE A WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVE INTO THE KS/MO AREA ON FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF BREAK FROM CONVECTION.

MJ

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MID RANGE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FILLED WITH POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGH TRAVERS THE
PLAINS STATES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK
WEEK. SATURDAY WILL DAWN WITH A SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME STORMS BY THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS THE OUTLIER...MOST AGGRESSIVE AND QUICKEST WITH
THE ACTIVITY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AND THAT NIGHT AS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR NOW. DID WARM
TEMPERATURES A HAIR WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED TO RETURN
SATURDAY. WITH A TROUGH EXPECTED QUICK ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAYS
RIDGE...ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MIGHT PERSIST INTO SUNDAY WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED
THE COVERAGE AREA OF THE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT AND NIGHT TIME
HOURS OF SUNDAY AS A RESULT.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS LOOK TO SETTLE DOWN
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE EXPANDS
EAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLAW
THEIR WAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THROUGH THE MID WORK WEEK PERIOD.
HOWEVER...TOWARDS MID WORK WEEK...PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOME MORE STORMY WEATHER AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WE GET SOME WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT. HAVE PENCILED IN A SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS
TIME AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING THIS.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. PATCHES OF IFR CIGS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE CONVECTION AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES INTO MAINLY THE KC TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z- 10Z. THIS ROUND IS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SCENTRAL KS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END WITH A
IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING DURING THE
AFTN.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ025-031>033-
     038>040-043>046-053-054.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>024-028>030-037.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ057-060.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-102>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
706 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-140015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
706 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE STORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...THAT IS THEY ARE NOT TIED TO A
SURFACE BASED BOUNDARY...AND THUS LACK THE NECESSARY LOW LEVEL
ROTATION TO PRODUCE TORNADIC TYPE SUPERCELLS. THUS...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS LESS LIKELY.

FURTHER WEST...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE FORMED ALONG A COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WHILE INDIVIDUAL
STORMS TRACK NORTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO EXTREME EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST OF A HIGGINSVILLE TO CLINTON LINE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AND MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE.
EAST OF A HIGGINSVILLE TO CLINTON LINE...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE AN
INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES LIKELY. DUE TO
THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OR EXTEND RIVER FLOODING ON MANY
AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WITH MORE RAIN...FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS RETURNS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...PLEASE
FORWARD ANY TYPES OF FLOODING REPORTS.

MJ

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