River Flood Warning 112, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
/848 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/
REMNANTS OF EARLIER SRN KS TORNADO SUPERCELLS NOW A STRONGLY FORCED
BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-MID LEVEL JET AXES CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION...AND THUS LITTLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS BEING
REALIZED...ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED WITH THE VERY STABLE LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS THAT RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH T/TD VALUES
IN THE MID 50S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS THE ONLY EXPECTED
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THESE STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
KC METRO BY 9 PM.

FURTHER WEST...A NARROW AXIS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER...CENTERED IN AN AREA OF
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODEST DCVA. THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LARGE HAIL EARLIER UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...BUT EASTWARD
EXTRAPOLATION OF ELEVATED CAPE VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION
SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL...AND
SHOULD ONLY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AT WORST CASE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
JOHNSON/MIAMI COUNTIES IN KANSAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/328 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION (THIS AFTN-TONIGHT)...

ACTIVE...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODE UNFOLDING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VIA WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOWING 50-65 KT H5 FLOW CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS WITH POTENT 85KT JET STREAK NOW
NOSING INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
RAPIDLY FALLING HEIGHT FIELDS. 50KT LLJ HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT STILL AROUND 40-45KTS...TRANSPORTING LLVL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. CYCLOGENESIS HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WITH STRONG SURGE OF RICH THETA E AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. THIS HAS REINFORCED THE SFC WARM FRONT TO PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG A KDDC TO KMLC LINE.
OUT WEST...STRONG PRESSURE RESPONSE TO APPROACHING JET STREAK HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EASTWARD. THIS HAS SHARPENED THE SFC DRYLINE FROM THE SFC LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TX/OK STATE LINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WITH ONGOING STRATUS DECK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND ITS
EFFECTS ON INSTABILITY. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF EROSION FROM THE STRATUS FIELD...ALTHOUGH STILL A WAYS
TO GO. SHOULD THE STRATUS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ONGOING SIGNS ON
EROSION SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL BREAK UP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE
WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. GIVEN EXPECTED STORM
MOTIONS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD. INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL REMAIN RATHER NARROW ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI...KEEPING ANY TORNADIC POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SHOULD THE WARM FRONT
LIFT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DEROCHE

SHORT TERM (LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE DAYBREAK HOURS OF TUESDAY REMAIN ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STEADY RAINFALL IN THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE THE EXACT TRACK OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING.  PWAT VALUES
AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REACH UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES AS THE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH.  WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MAY BE IN SOMEWHAT DOUBT...THE PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO FAIRLY QUICK RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  THUS...WILL PLACE A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE METRO AREA AS FFG VALUES REMAIN AOA 3
INCHES IN MOST SPOTS. THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS CONVECTION
EXITS AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER RISES ON AREA STREAMS WILL LIKELY
PEAK NEAR DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT PUSHING THE SFC FRONT
INTO THE OZARKS ON TUESDAY ONLY TO STALL IT IN THE OZARKS DUE TO YET
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE MID-LVL TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY
NIGHT.  ALL-IN-ALL...SHOULD BE A QUIET AND NEAR NORMAL DAY OVER THE
CWA AS LOW LVL THERMAL AXIS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
PROGRESSIVELY LIFT NORTH WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERHEAD AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.   WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LLJ SOME 40-50
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SOME 800-1200 J/KG WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND
COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR SOME 30-45 KNOTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO DEVELOP ELEVATED STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE CONVECTION TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

SPEAKING OF WEDNESDAY...THIS WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW IN ITS
NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS THE MID-LVL S/W EJECTS EASTWARD.  GFS REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM...STALLING THE FRONT FROM A MANHATTAN TO
ST. JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE LINE BY 00Z. THIS WILL SETUP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOME 20+ DEGREES FROM THE
NORTHERN CWA TO THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH NORTHERN AREAS STUCK IN COLD
EASTERLY FLOW AND SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR.
NEVERTHELESS...SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY RATHER SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
SOME 1500-2000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP BY MID-AFTN.  AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...A STRONG EML WILL QUICKLY RACE IN SOUTH OF THE FRONT
LIKELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE AREA OFF THROUGH THE AFTN.  THE WEAKEST
LINK WILL BE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTS IN NE KS AND NORTHERN MO WHERE
SFC CONVECTION MAY TAKE PLACE BY MID AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE INCREASING PVA WILL BEGIN TO AID IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION.  DECENT SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
FOCUS...HOWEVER STRONG LOW-LVL SHEAR MAY ALSO INDUCE A TORNADIC
THREAT AS WELL.  STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR LINE BY THE
EVENING...HOWEVER WITHOUT ANY STRONG SE PUSH OTHER THAN BY MESOSCALE
PROCESS AND WITH GENERALLY PARALLEL FLOW TO THE FRONT HEAVY RAIN MAY
BECOME A DISTINCT THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DUX

MEDIUM RANGE (THU-SUN)...

THURSDAY...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SE AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAG HEAVY PRECIP THROUGH
THE AREA.  GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND FUTURE RAINFALL TONIGHT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL HYDRO WATCHES FOR THE
MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME.  HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FOR FRIDAY BEFORE EVEN
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.   MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE WILL NOT DIVE ALL THAT FAR
SOUTH...AND MAY BE LIFTED BACK NORTHWARD AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE MID-LVL FLOW BY SATURDAY.  THUS WILL INCREASE POPS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BUT RESIDUAL LOW STRATUS DECK WRAPPING IN BEHIND WILL BE
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THROUGH MORNING. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
DECK AS SOUTHERN EDGE IS A BIT RAGGED...BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE
TO HAVE IFR CIGS IN THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS FOR A TIME BY
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MOZ002>008-012>017-021>025-
     030>033-038>040-044>046-054.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
644 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
 OUTLOOK AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND PROSPECTS FOR AIRMASS
 DESTABILIZATION CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY
 APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
 TO WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS TOWARD 8 PM...AND THEN
 SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING
 MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

 WHILE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
 REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
 STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...MAINLY
 SOUTH OF A PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
 FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
 STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD
 NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
 SEVERE WEATHER AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
 FRONT. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SLOW
 STORM MOVEMENT MAY RESULT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
 THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A PAOLA
 TO WARRENSBURG LINE...MAINLY BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM.

BOOKBINDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
934 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

MOZ053-054-110300-
BATES MO-HENRY MO-
934 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND
SOUTHEASTERN BATES COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 928 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RICH HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CLINTON...MONTROSE...DEEPWATER...ROCKVILLE...LA DUE...HARTWELL...
  BROWNINGTON AND COAL.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3805 9425 3805 9428 3814 9436 3847 9391
      3833 9352 3820 9379 3821 9404 3807 9406
      3804 9412 3805 9413 3805 9417 3804 9419
      3804 9422 3802 9424 3802 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 237DEG 57KT 3812 9418

ACH/DD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     HAIL             ODESSA                  39.00N 93.95W
05/10/2010  E0.88 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010

MOZ038-110530-
LAFAYETTE MO-
1201 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAFAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 1230 AM
CDT...

AT 1157 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM HIGGINSVILLE TO ODESSA TO OAK GROVE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN ODESSA WITH
THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HIGGINSVILLE...ODESSA...CORDER AND ALMA.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3892 9411 3903 9408 3913 9383 3921 9360
      3913 9349 3894 9350 3893 9370 3893 9384
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 253DEG 34KT 3910 9368 3902 9384
          3898 9401

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1233 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010

MOZ038-039-110600-
LAFAYETTE MO-SALINE MO-
1233 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SALINE AND EASTERN
LAFAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1227 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BLACKBURN TO
CONCORDIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SWEET SPRINGS...MARSHALL...EMMA AND MOUNT LEONARD.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3922 9319 3894 9321 3899 9366 3913 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 261DEG 37KT 3910 9343 3901 9353

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010

MOZ039-040-046-110615-
COOPER MO-HOWARD MO-SALINE MO-
1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SALINE...WESTERN HOWARD
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARSHALL TO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  NELSON AND ARROW ROCK.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3924 9277 3912 9270 3897 9278 3899 9331
      3908 9332 3915 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 265DEG 46KT 3914 9317 3909 9315
          3902 9319

21