Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
108 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-
ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
108 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS NORTH
OF A ST JOSEPH TO MACON LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
STORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AND TOWARDS THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ARE POOLING AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL IA. DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRESENT A FEW ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE... WITH LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLF BALL
SIZE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

IN ADDITION...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE TO ITS SOUTH...WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND MOVES OVER TOP OF THE FRONT...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS LIKELY TO FORM AND ROLL ACROSS IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI.
AGAIN HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

ALSO, IF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN AN AREA...WITH STILL FAIRLY WET
GROUND...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR THE
IOWA BORDER IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI AT THE START OF THE DAY NEAR A WARM
FRONT. BY MIDDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A
COLD FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL BE TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREATS. AHEAD
OF THIS COLD FRONT...HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS, LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR...BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE
ONCE AGAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH AND EVERY DAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO
BE DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. IN
ADDITION...DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE RAIN THREAT AND THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE INCREASING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

MJ