Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Kansas City, MO

428 
WGUS73 KEAX 090244
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
944 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

MOC033-107-177-195-090500-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-100609T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAFAYETTE MO-SALINE MO-RAY MO-CARROLL MO-
944 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CARROLL...
SOUTHERN RAY...SALINE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 810 PM CDT...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED...HOWEVER LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT WATER IS COVERING PORTIONS OF U U HIGHWAY BETWEEN 
CARROLLTON AND BOSWORTH DUE TO  OVERFLOW FROM BIG CREEK.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...CARROLLTON...
CONCORDIA...HIGGINSVILLE...LEXINGTON...MARSHALL...ODESSA...
RICHMOND...SWEET SPRINGS...ALMA...BLACKBURN...CORDER...HARDIN...
HENRIETTA...MALTA BEND...MAYVIEW...NORBORNE...WAVERLY AND WELLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES... AS WELL AS
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 9350 3892 9412 3939 9411 3941 9317
      3893 9307

$$

SF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

DESPITE FILTERED SUNSHINE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NEARLY FULLY RECOVERED
AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT. THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
WITH 3000 TO 4000 J/KG CAPE. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AND
WE MAY SEE UPWARDS OF 5000 J/KG OF SBCAPE FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH. AS
STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP...GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...0-6KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
SUPERCELLS LIKELY. GIVEN LOW CONDENSATION LEVELS THESE STORMS WOULD
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE PRESENCE OF A SYNOPTIC
FRONT AND THE LIKELY INTERSECTION OF THAT FRONT WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT FROM EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 15 AND 16 THOUSAND
FEET...BASED OFF THE 18Z TOP SOUNDING...INDICATE THAT A CORE WOULD
HAVE TO BE VERY LARGE WITH 50 DBZ HEIGHTS LIKELY NEEDING TO HIT 40-44
THOUSAND FEET. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ALSO BE A THREAT INITIALLY WITH
ANY DOWNDRAFTS FROM THE SUPERCELLS.

ANOTHER HAZARD WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SUGGEST A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN. THIS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY INITIAL
STORM BUT ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS FORM INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS
EVENING. AS THE STORMS FORM INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMING
DOMINANT...TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINEAR SYSTEM ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

11

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM/THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...

POST MCS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S BEING ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION ON
GUSTY SW WINDS. SURFACE BASED ML CAPES PER SPC MESOSCALE PAGE HAVE
REACHED 6000 J/KG BUT IT IS APPARENT FROM THE STORM EVOLUTION OVER
EAST CENTRAL KS THAT WE ARE NOT TAPPING INTO ALL OF THAT AS THEIR
STORM MOTION EXCEEDS THAT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS...PLUS INSPECTION
OF KTOP 18Z SOUNDING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED FRONTAL
TYPE INVERSION LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS THAT HAS YET TO BE
OVERCOME. WHEN THAT DOES EXPECT TO SEE STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE
BASED. THAT MAY BE WHAT IS OCCURRING FROM NORTH OF ICT TO EMP. HRRR
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODEL HAS BEEN ADVERTISING RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OVER EAST CENTRAL KS/NW MO BY 21Z AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
MODEL. EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED GROWTH AND INCREASING STRENGTH OF A
DEVELOPING MCS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CWA WHICH WILL TRACK ESE THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WE WILL SEE SOME TRAINING OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE WSW AND FEEDS VERY MOISTURE LADEN AIR
WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE COMPLEX.
FORTUNATELY FFG VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ARE HIGH
ENOUGH THAT THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST OF THE RAINFALL.

HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE 0-6KM WIND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY
THREAT...LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY DESPITE HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL. MODERATELY STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR IS ALSO STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DURING THE INITIAL
PHASE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT BUT
ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

MJ

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...
REMNANTS FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE MID 80S. FOR
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS A
LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS WARM...MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. VERY WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL  INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTER ZONES
DURING THE DAY BUT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE NOSE OF THIS
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

11

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

EXTENDED MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE WITH POSITION OF LONG WAVE
FEATURES EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WHERE THEY SHOW A FAIRLY HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE US WITH RIDGING
FURTHER EAST. LOTS OF MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN DISAGREEMENT OF
POSITION AND TIMING OF FEATURES LATE IN THE EXTENDED AND THE ONLY
THING MISSING FROM THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS IS THE
MARINARA...THUS CONFIDENCE ISNT REAL HIGH ON ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL
SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST IS SOMEWHERE AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

AB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ039-040-
     043>046-053-054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ057-060.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
119 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091830-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-
ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
119 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE LINE...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY LINE.
WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA WAS STABILIZED FROM THIS
MORNINGS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOOKING UPSTREAM
THE ENVIRONMENTAL AIR HAS RAPIDLY RECOVERED AND BECOME UNSTABLE OVER
KANSAS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL BECOME THE NEXT FEATURE TO FOCUS ON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THIS
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
FORM BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. IT WILL BE DURING THIS INITIAL
PHASE WHEN ISOLATED STORMS ARE PRESENT THAT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WILL BE GREATEST. WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO A SQUALL LINE WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
513 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

MOZ038-044-082300-
JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-
513 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAFAYETTE AND JOHNSON COUNTIES IN
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 509 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
MAYVIEW TO OAK GROVE TO PLEASANT HILL TO HARRISONVILLE TO
LOUISBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BEING RECORDED IN AN HOUR BY
AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA.  RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL CAUSE STORM DRAINS TO BECOME
QUICKLY OVERCOME AND WILL LEAD TO RAPID PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HIGGINSVILLE...ODESSA...HOLDEN...CONCORDIA...WARRENSBURG...KNOB
  NOSTER...WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE...KINGSVILLE...CORDER...WAVERLY...
  ALMA...CHILHOWEE...LEETON...DOVER...BATES CITY...AULLVILLE...
  PITTSVILLE...LAKE LAFAYETTE...LA TOUR AND QUICK CITY.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY PROMPTING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. IN
ADDITION...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO
MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV
OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3857 9412 3914 9411 3914 9407 3916 9404
      3917 9400 3915 9401 3914 9398 3917 9394
      3922 9357 3922 9352 3923 9349 3855 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 291DEG 23KT 3905 9382 3904 9414
          3879 9419 3865 9436 3856 9463

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
528 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RAYMORE                 38.81N 94.46W
06/08/2010  M1.50 INCH       CASS               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN OF 1.50 INCHES WAS MEASURED IN 40 MINUTES.

&&

MJULY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OVERLAND PARK           38.91N 94.68W
06/08/2010  M1.60 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN IN PAST HOUR WAS MEASURED AT 1.60 INCHES.

&&

MJULY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     RAYMORE                 38.81N 94.46W
06/08/2010  E60 MPH          CASS               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MJULY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     RAYMORE                 38.81N 94.46W
06/08/2010  E60.00 MPH       CASS               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MJULY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
606 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARRISONVILLE           38.66N 94.35W
06/08/2010                   CASS               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN.

&&

MJULY