Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1004 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WITH LINE OF
TSRA MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL IA AND HEADED FOR THE SRN THIRD
OF THE CWFA. TRAILING E-W LINE TSRA IS SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH NRN
MO ATM. HOWEVER...WITH LLJ INCREASING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
POINTING TOWARD SE IA TONIGHT...FEEL THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A
PROLONGED PD OF MODERATE SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA. SOME AREAS
N OF I80 RECEIVED AN 1+ IN AN HOUR FROM STORMS EARLIER THIS
EVENING. WITH THE GROUND SATURATED IN SPOTS FROM THE EARLIER
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FLASH FLOOD FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.]

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
..DLF..

&&

.AVIATION /ISSUED AT 312PM....
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST
MID EVENING TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING. ..LE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
359 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-022100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
359 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS EVENING...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...SETTING UP A WARM FRONT UPON WHICH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS. AIRMASS PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE STORMS
WILL SLOW DOWN AND WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...CHANGING
THE THREAT OVER TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHERE THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLE RIVER
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LE

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