Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEBRASKA
WITH A H85 WARM FRONT RUNNING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. AN H85 COLD FRONT
RAN FROM THE UPPER LOW INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A STRONG LLJ OF
40-55 KTS RAN FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC AND UPPER
FRONTS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INDICATE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. 18Z SFC PLOT
INDICATED THE LOW NEAR KOMA WITH THE WARM FRONT RUNNING ROUGHLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 30. DEW POINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR WERE IN THE 60S WITH
50S NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RUNNING BEHIND SO DISCUSSION WILL BE BRIEF. NEWLY ISSUED CONVECTIVE
WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT SHORT RANGE TRENDS.
CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWFA. CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE CELLS THAT WILL PROBABLY
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR MCS EVENTS. POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING IS
THERE SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THERE WAS HEAVY RAIN LAST
NIGHT BUT IT WAS QUITE LOCALIZED. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

MODELS INDICATE THE SFC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ONGOING SEVERE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED ONCE THE SFC WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

PRECIP TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND END BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY AS
THE BETTER FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT ON...MODELS PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
ATTM THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT DRY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SAID
FRONT THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. ELECTED TO GO DRY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED.
HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON AS
BETTER MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
...08...

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST REACHING ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TAF
SITES ON AN OCCASIONAL BASIS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH RAIN FOLLOWING
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR PRIOR TO STORMS EXCEPT AT DBQ
WHERE LOW STRATUS WILL STILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS AND HAIL ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE INITIALLY GUST SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IFR TO IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN.
...ERVIN...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
516 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-071030-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
516 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS
MORNING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
IN ADDITION... SOME AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS
RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES... AND
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA MID AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 BETWEEN 4 PM
AND 9 PM. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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