Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Quad Cities, IA

July 18, 2010McDonough County, Warren County, Illinois

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 18, 2010, 7:08 AM CDT for McDonough County, Warren County, Illinois. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 18, 2010, 7:08 AM CDT (12:08 UTC)
Expired: Jul 18, 2010, 8:04 AM CDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties McDonough County, IL, Warren County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 18, 3:05 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3619 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 775 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 76 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 18, 3:29 AM CDT, 3 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 3:29 AM CDT, 3 hours 39 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS IS QUITE NOISY WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES. A LOW WAS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A BOUNDARY/FRONT EAST INTO WISCONSIN
AND MICHIGAN. A MORE OBVIOUS COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK TROFS RAN FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE A
PRONOUNCED MESOSCALE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WITH A
WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEW
POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
HAS LED TO INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS. NOT ONE MODEL IS HANDLING THE
CURRENT SITUATION. THUS WILL NOWCAST THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TODAY...HIGHER CIN ACROSS THE AREA IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MCS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MERGING WITH THE NEBRASKA MCS. FORWARD CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THIS
MCS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHILE THE BACKWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY DEVELOPMENT
OF NEW CELLS. RIGHT AROUND 12Z THE FORWARD AND BACKWARD CORFIDI
VECTORS ARE 180 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN AN ENHANCED RAINFALL RISK
WOULD BE REALIZED AND A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTHERN
CWFA. 1 HR FFG IS 2+ INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.

AS FOR TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.
MODELS DO SHOW STRONG WAA DEVELOPING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
IOWA/MISSOURI WITH TIME. THE LLJ IS NOT OVERLY STRONG BUT THE SREF
SUGGESTS MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE STRONG WAA WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF THE CWFA AFT MIDNIGHT.   ..08..

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH ZONAL FLOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN US...ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING SHORT
WAVE TRAVERSES NORTHERN IOWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE CWFA FINDS
ITSELF SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO STRETCH
ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND THE 850 FRONT SPANNING NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE
BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY VCNTY 850MB FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AMPLE
MOISTURE...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW...MUST
KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BEST CHANCE FOR A MAINLY DRY
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO NORTHERN AREAS AS WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FUTURE WX. CAP OVER
THE IMMEDIATE AREA IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. CENTRAL IA MCS IS
MERGING WITH NEBRASKA MCS. RESULTANT MCS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH. KBRL HAS THE BEST CHC TO BE IMPACTED BY
TSRA WHICH MAY INCLUDE CIGS AOB 2KFT AND VSBYS AOB 2SM. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR WX EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/19. AFT 06Z/19 STRONG WAA
DEVELOPS SIGNALING ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING THAT MAY IMPACT KBRL/KCID
CLOSER TO 12Z/19.          ...08...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

08/33/08

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 5:06 AM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:09 AM CDT, 59 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:10 AM CDT, 58 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 6:18 AM CDT, 50 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:29 AM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 AM     TSTM WND GST     FAIRFIELD MUNICIPAL AIR 41.05N 91.98W
07/18/2010  M40 MPH          JEFFERSON          IA   AWOS

            AWOS REPORT.

&&

Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:33 AM CDT, 35 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:46 AM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
646 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 AM     TSTM WND GST     KEOKUK AIRPORT          40.47N 91.43W
07/18/2010  M48 MPH          LEE                IA   AWOS

            AWOS.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 4:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Jefferson, Van Buren	88 min
Jul 18, 5:29 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Van Buren	61 min
Jul 18, 5:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Jefferson	41 min
Jul 18, 6:09 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Lee, Van Buren	96 min
Jul 18, 6:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Lee, Van Buren	87 min
Jul 18, 8:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Johnson, Louisa, Muscatine, Scott, Washington	62 min
Jul 18, 8:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	DVN	Lee, Van Buren	10 days
Jul 18, 1:51 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2010 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.