River Flood Warning 155, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
254 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES.  A
S/W TROF MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WI SW THROUGH NWRN MO.
AIRMASS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WAS IN PROCESS
OF RECOVERING THE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL/TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CWFA. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF I80
THROUGH MID EVENING WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE PER SB
CAPES ALREADY OVER 5000J/KG OVER SERN IA AND CAP VIRTUALLY GONE.
EXPECT TSRA DEVELOPMENT THEN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER SE IA/NE MO
WHERE BETTER PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED.  SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS IN
PLACE FOR SUPER CELLS WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT THEN A TRANSITION
TO MORE LINEAR CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. TSRA THREAT EXPECTED
TO END BY LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE
FOR AT LEAST THE SERN HALF OF THE CWFA. LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH AND NOT AS WARM WITH THURSDAYS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W
MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER MIDWEST RIDGE
AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT A STRONG RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROF
FORMING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DAYS...AT
LEAST...OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WITH A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE REGION.  WET GROUND SHOULD SUPPLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SO WILL HOLD ON TO THE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WARM/HUMID AIR TO
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKUP BEHIND THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS DRAPE A FRONT ACROSS MN AND SD BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR MCS GENERATION
TO OUR NORTH. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES COULD BRUSH OUR NRN
COUNTIES...BUT WARM MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF THE
STORMS SO WILL CONFINE LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWFA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
DEVELOPS.  THIS SHOULD BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE
AREA.  ..DLF..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS. EXPECT TSRA TO
REDEVELOP ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 20Z. HIGHEST IMPACT WILL BE
MLI/BRL...WHERE CIGS TO 2KFT AND VSBY TO 2SM WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
AROUND 23Z. SMALL WINDOW FOR -TSRA INVOF DBQ 20Z TO 22Z...WHILE AT
CID HAVE SOME CB AND TEMPO -RA AS BEST THUNDER CHANCES SE. AFTER
FROPA ALL TERMINALS WILL AGAIN IMPROVE TO VFR.    ...LEGRO...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF 10 RIVERS IN THE DVN CWA CURRENTLY IN FLOOD MAINLY IN THE
MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORY. HOWEVER 2 FORECAST POINTS ARE IN MAJOR
FLOOD. THEY ARE DEWITT ON THE WAPSIPINICON AND AUGUSTA ON THE SKUNK.
KEOKUK ON THE MS RIVER HAS BEEN LOWERED TO MODERATE CATEGORY. MANY
OF THESE RIVERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE IMPACTING EXTREME EASTERN IA...EXTREME NORTHEAST MO
AND NW AND WESTERN IL. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH THAT
A QUICK INCH COULD FALL. HOWEVER IF TRAINING OF STORMS SET UP OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS THEN AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD OCCUR.
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO GO HIGHER THAN
FORECAST OR REMAIN IN FLOOD LONGER THAN EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE A
COUPLE OF DRY DAYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MORE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY.  ..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-
     LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

DLF/LEGRO/HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
920 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-241000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
920 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

THE ONGOING ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. CLEARING CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ALLOW THE
AIR TO HEAT UP AND STE THE STAGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
BUT LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE IOWA...
DOWN TO THE QUAD CITIES...AND ACROSS TO KEOSAUQUA IN FAR SOUTHEAST
IOWA WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THESE AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS.

JUST AS IMPORTANT AS THE SEVERE THREAT...IS THE HEAVY RAIN FROM EACH
ROUND OF STORMS. SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOOD EVENT.

ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100 THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A BRIGHTON IOWA TO ALEXIS ILLINOIS LINE.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A NEAR DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE
CONDUCTED AT 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

12

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