Frost Advisory 4, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Clark County, MO, Scotland County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT SAT OCT 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THAT THE MAIN FRONT HAD SLIPPED
JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA ATTM...WITH TRAILING POST-FRONTAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FINALLY PUSHING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. A
1035 MB RIDGE CENTER WAS PERCHED UP ACRS NORTHERN ND...WITH
EXTENSIVE SFC PRESSURE RISES NOTED ON INCOMING RIDGE GRADIENT FROM
NEB...TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. ALOFT...W/V IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A
VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROLLING SOUTHWARD ACRS SOUTHWEST MN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO WALK OUT LIGHT SHOWERS ANS SPRINKLES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING...WITH ROBUST POTS
VORT SUBSIDENCE TEMPORARILY MAKING FOR PLENTY OF CLEARING PATCHES IN
THE CLOUD COVER BY MID MORNING. VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND MORE
LLVL/H85 MB MOISTURE ADVECTING OUT OF WI AND ACRS THE AREA WILL
COMBINE FOR MORE CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CU RULE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT BACK TO A
BROKEN LEVEL AT LEAST IN ANY CLEARING AREAS...AS WELL AS A MOISTURE
LAYER FROM 3K-6K FT GETTING TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL INVERSION. THUS
THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY PARTLY CLOUDY...TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT
TIMES. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUING ROBUST POST-FRONTAL
CAA...ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING UP CLOSE TO H8 MB AND PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

TONIGHT...WILL BANK ON SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING TO KILL OFF
INSTABILITY CU FOR A SKY CLEAR OUT...ALTHOUGH LLVL PROGS SUGGEST
CONTINUED MOISTURE FEED IN NORTHEAST FETCH OUT OF WI WELL INTO THE
EVENING...WHICH COULD KEEP SOME STRATUS PATCHES ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. WITH A CLEAR OUT AND SFC WIND DECOUPLE...
THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST
OF THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA
POSSIBLY OPEN UP TO WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS AND THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING. FOR NOW WITH CLOUD CONCERNS...WILL ISSUE A CWA-WIDE
FROST ADVISORY...AND LET THE FOLLOWING SHIFT MAKE THE CALL FOR AN
UPGRADE ON A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF NEED BE.
LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 30S...WITH A FEW COLD AIR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
DRY FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP AFTER A CHILLY
AND FROSTY MONDAY MORNING.  NO HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS YET AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS FROST/FREEZE-WISE TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE RIDGING ALOFT STARTS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.  ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE DURING
THE PERIOD IS THE PASSAGE OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS PLUS WARMER
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS.  ALL IN ALL...IT SHOULD BE A
BEAUTIFUL FALL WEEK.    ..WOLF..

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR LEVEL STRATUS...WITH A FEW MVFR POCKETS WILL FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT OUT OF THE DVN CWA BY 16Z...BUT MORE CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT
OR MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL BE AT
BKN OR EVEN OVC LEVELS BY MIDDY AND THE AFTERNOON. BUT FCST CIGS
WILL BE AT VFR LEVELS FROM 3500 TO 5000 FT. EXPECT CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND VALLEY FOG
IN VCNTY OF THE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY SFC WINDS MAY GUST TO OVER 23
KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN DEEP MIXING ENVIRONMENT.     ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

12/WOLF

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