Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1254 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR KFSD WITH WARM FRONT TO NORTHERN IL AND COLD
FRONT FROM THE LOW TO THE TX PANHANDLE. BAND OF WAA THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WERE OVER THE DVN CWA EARLIER HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTH. IN THE MEANTIME...LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO
THE DVN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND MUCH LESS
HUMID AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS. ..HAASE..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL IMPACT THE DVN CWA THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AS MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 50 KNOTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. NAM/RAPID REFRESH SEEMS TO NAIL THE
SCENARIO PRETTY GOOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE CWA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOMETIME TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS. HEAT HEADLINES WILL ALSO BE
CANCELED.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT STILL TO ARRIVE SO VERY WARM AND HUMID BUT MAY
BE NOT QUITE AS EXCESSIVE AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DEPENDING ON
LINGERING CLOUD COVER OR LACK OF WILL DICTATE IF WE APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OR NOT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WILL FORECAST NEAR 90 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S...BUT IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS THEN MAY NOT MAKE IT THAT WARM.

..HAASE..

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT CERTAINLY GETS GOING CLOSER TO EARLY
SUNDAY...AS SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO NOW APPEAR MORE AFFECTED BY
A WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND
OF GETTING SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY GOING SATURDAY
NIGHT. SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW RATHER VIGOROUS STORMS IN A
MATURE TO DISSIPATING MODE ENTERING THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LATER ARRIVAL...MODELS AND ANALYSIS
STILL SHOW A SEASONALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BRINGING COOLER
AND MUCH MORE REFRESHING AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AS ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM TODAY. WE STILL ARE
KEEPING A VERY LOW POP IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RE
ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND UPPER WAVE....HOWEVER THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY CONFIDENCE IN ITS PLACEMENT.
..ERVIN..

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED IN THE STORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. ..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

HAASE/ERVIN/HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1046 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-141600-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1046 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
LIKELY WITH AT LEAST 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OF
STORMS OCCUR. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN ON SATURATED GROUND MAY CAUSE
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALSO HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE.
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT TO THE NORTH. ONCE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE THE HEAT THREAT
WILL END QUICKLY AND HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE CANCELED.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAASE

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