Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
912 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2010

.UPDATE...
THE RISK FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT NEARLY ON TOP OF THE EVENT FROM
LAST NIGHT HAS INCREASED AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD. THE SFC
HAS REMAINED CAPPED OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO...AND MCS
PARAMETERS...AND AGGRESSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT ON RADAR ARE BULLSEYED
ON WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NE. THIS AREA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS...MOVING GENERALLY EAST...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE EAST AS
SHOWN ON BOTH FORWARD AND BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS.
CAPE SHOULD REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2000 ALL NIGHT...WITH PWAT VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN
NAILING THE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR...AND THIS BRINGS THE HEART OF
THE MCS ALONG I-80 LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THIS IS OVER SATURATED AND
URBAN AREAS...A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED MIDNIGHT THROUGH
1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.
..ERVIN..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

...ERVIN...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
919 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-050230-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
919 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE STORM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR. WHERE THIS RAIN FALLS IN SATURATED AND URBAN
AREAS...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS
ROUGHLY WITHIN 50 MILES OF INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS
THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS. SOME OF THESE
RIVERS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL RISES DUE TO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAYS
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ENDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE FRONT PASSES. UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS OF MORE
THAN AN INCH IN A SHORT PERIOD OR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

ERVIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
115 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

IAZ063-076-040715-
IOWA-KEOKUK-
115 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING EASTERN IOWA...

AT 110 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 42 MILES WEST OF
WHAT CHEER TO 56 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HEDRICK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WHAT CHEER AROUND 210 AM CDT...
  DELTA...HEDRICK...KESWICK AND HAYESVILLE AROUND 215 AM CDT...

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR AND DANGEROUS FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4151 9242 4151 9231 4169 9231 4169 9230
      4169 9220 4116 9219 4116 9241 4123 9242
TIME...MOT...LOC 0609Z 268DEG 32KT 4159 9308 4073 9316

HAASE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
257 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

IAZ063>065-067-068-077-078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015-024-025-040900-
CEDAR-DES
MOINES-HENDERSON-HENRY-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LEE-LOUISA-MERCER-
MUSCATINE-ROCK ISLAND-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON-
257 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...

AT 254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OXFORD TO
CRAWFORDSVILLE TO KEOSAUQUA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WYMAN...RIVERSIDE...ROME AND OLDS AROUND 300 AM CDT...
  COTTER AND TIFFIN AROUND 305 AM CDT...
  NORTH LIBERTY...WESTWOOD...COLUMBUS JUNCTION AND COLUMBUS CITY
  AROUND 310 AM CDT...

WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND DANGEROUS
FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4120 9163 4181 9195 4181 9100 4120 9069
      4069 9128 4068 9219 4071 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 270DEG 29KT 4173 9178 4120 9151
          4075 9201

HAASE