Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR WHAT IS SIMPLY AMAZING TO BEHOLD...THE NEAR EXACT AXIS OF
EXCEPTIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 NIGHTS...IS ONCE AGAIN THE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVE TARGET FOR HEAVY RAIN FALLING SINCE LATE EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAS SEEN HOURS OF TRAINING
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH THE T-BONE MCS
UPSTREAM...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH 7 AM THIS
MORNING. LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH REMAIN VERY WARM OVERNIGHT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CAP WHICH HAS HELD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AT BAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESTRAIN DEEP
CONVECTION OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT WILL VERY
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AROUND SUNRISE AS THE UPSTREAM MCS MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTHEAST. THROUGH 15Z...ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEMS LIKELY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. AREAL TO FLASH FLOODING IS
ONGOING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING..BUT THE OVER ALL
HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD END AROUND 12Z AS THE MCS WORKS
SOUTHEAST.

POPS TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE DISSIPATING MCS...EXPECTED TO BE
BISECTING THE CWA AT 12Z. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE EAST OF
THE CWA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY KEEP RE
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CWA TODAY...THUS POPS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
IN THE MODERATE CHANCE RANGE.

I HAVE NOT CHANGED THE END TIME ON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH YET...BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT AND DRY...AND NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THOSE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
ANY DETAILS. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL BUT THE BRL TERMINAL
THROUGH MID MORNING. DBQ WILL HAVE NEARLY CONTINUOUS MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 14Z...WHILE CID AND
MLI WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN THE FORECASTS...BUT GUSTS UP TO 45KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT CID BEFORE SUNRISE. THE TREND IS
FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING BRL MID TO LATE MORNING. ALL
SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH VEERING WINDS
TO W AND THEN NW BY EVENING.
..SHEETS..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON MANY AREA RIVERS WHICH
FLOW OUT OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS THE
MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE QPF FROM TONIGHTS MCS HAS
OCCURRED ROUGHLY 60 TO 80 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THUS
EXPECT CHANGES ON TIMING AND LEVEL OF CRESTS THIS MORNING AS THIS
DATA IS ASSIMILATED. HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH IS GENERALLY UPSTREAM
ON TRIBS AND MAIN STEM MISSISSIPPI...AND AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 8
HOURS HAVE LIKELY BEEN VERY HEAVY ON TOP OF ALREADY FLOODED
LOCATIONS. THUS RUN OFF WILL BE EXTREME...AND DOWNSTREAM FLOODING
WILL BE VERY SIGNIFICANT IN MANY LOCATIONS.
..ERVIN..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

ERVIN/SHEETS/ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
523 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-251030-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
523 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 EARLY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING AS THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER
THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ENDING IN
IOWA...AND MOVING OUT OF ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS FOR WHICH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS. MANY RIVERS WHICH
ORIGINATE IN NORTHEAST IOWA WILL SEE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.
RECORD FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE MAQUOKETA RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN IN THE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
THREATS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. RAINFALL AND FLOOD REPORTS ARE WELCOMED.

ERVIN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>