Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Quad Cities, IA

649 
WGUS73 KDVN 200331
FFSDVN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1031 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

IAC111-177-ILC067-109-MOC045-199-200600-
/O.CON.KDVN.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-100720T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEE IA-VAN BUREN IA-MCDONOUGH IL-HANCOCK IL-CLARK MO-SCOTLAND MO-
1031 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SCOTLAND...CLARK...HANCOCK...SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH...SOUTHERN VAN BUREN
AND SOUTHERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 1026 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR  
REPORTED ANOTHER ROUND OF  THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING 
OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HAMILTON...
NAUVOO...FERRIS...COLUSA...CARTHAGE...BURNSIDE...ADRIAN...
TENNESSEE...COLCHESTER...MILTON...CANTRIL...BONAPARTE...NEW BOSTON...
MONTROSE...KEOKUK...FORT MADISON...DONNELLSON...CROTON...MEMPHIS...
GRANGER...WYACONDA...WAYLAND...LURAY...KAHOKA AND ST. FRANCISVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED IN CLARK COUNTY 
SINCE 9 PM...WITH THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE 
AREA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 
11 PM.  FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN FORT MADISON AND 
FARMINGTON...IOWA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHILE DRIVING.

FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...HIGHWAYS AND STREETS...
UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING URBAN AND RURAL AREAS IS LIKELY.

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 9145 4020 9151 4025 9151 4025 9195
      4030 9196 4030 9235 4056 9237 4060 9233
      4061 9220 4077 9219 4063 9133 4040 9065
      4038 9045 4028 9045 4028 9091 4019 9092

$$

LE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
242 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTICALLY...WE REMAIN IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN SURROUNDING A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL HIGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN EXCESSIVE
OVER THE REGION...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF PWAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW SITTING FROM
NEAR KANSAS CITY...TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALONG IT...SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE FOUND...WITH A STRONG SURGE SOUTH OVER
EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL IL...WHERE OUR OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO
REMAIN STRONG. THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES GREATLY COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST AS THEY ARE NUMEROUS. ..ERVIN..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTH THE LAST 2 MORNINGS...THE GROUND
IS SATURATED AGAIN. FLASH FLOODING WOULD RESULT FROM ANY
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN THERE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THIS IS A REAL THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR GENERALLY OUR SOUTHWEST 1/3 OR SO THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SUPPORT THE MAIN LLJ CONVERGENCE TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INTO
TUESDAY...HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH MAY ACT TO
FOCUS CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THE WATCH IS VERY MUCH
NEEDED. TO THE NORTH...HEAVY RAIN IS LESS LIKELY...BUT AS SEEN
TODAY...PLENTIFUL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND...WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...POPS NEED TO BE
HIGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL. THIS VERY MESSY
FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD DOWN AGAIN TUESDAY UNDER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH AND CENTRAL...AND UPPER
80S SOUTH.

IN GENERAL...THE EVENT SUPPORTS AN AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOUND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. AS MESOSCALE DETAILS UNFOLD THIS
EVENING...A MORE REFINED AXIS OF RAINFALL WILL BECOME
APPARENT...AS WELL AS THE SEVERE THREAT...IF IT IS NOTABLE AT ALL.

..ERVIN..

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN E-W
BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE REGION UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EACH PERIOD AS WEAK
MID LEVEL WAVES INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT
GULF MOISTURE TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. HAVE ADJUSTED THU
POPS DOWNWARD AS MODELS DRIVE THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY NORTH INTO SRN MN
AND WI...SUGGESTING A WARM H7 CAP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRI AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA DRIVES THE BOUNDARY BACK SE AS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS WITH DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT MINS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FROM N TO S.

MODELS THEN AGREE ON A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA UNDER A SHORT PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP
RETURN FLOW AND PRECIPITATION LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON ALONG THE
RETURNING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT OR CONSISTENCY
IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE FRONTAL POSITIONS...WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL FOLLOW THE LATE FRIDAY FROPA AND PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND.
..SHEETS..

&&

.AVIATION...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES DUE TO
CHAOTIC THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. VFR
TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS A
FORECAST CHALLENGE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY...AND TAFS ARE USING A CB
CLOUD GROUP TO INDICATE THAT THREAT.
..ERVIN..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

ERVIN/SHEETS/ERVIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
844 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-201000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
844 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.   THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS
TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS...THEN THERE WILL AN INCREASED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES
OR POSSIBLE FLOODING TO AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1100 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLCHESTER              40.43N 90.79W
07/19/2010  M1.50 INCH       MCDONOUGH          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 10 AM. MINOR STREET FLOODING REPORTED.

&&

ERVIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

IAZ051-052-063>065-067-076>078-191800-
BENTON-CEDAR-IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON-
1203 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING...

AT NOON CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CONROY TO 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DELTA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SWISHER...SOUTH ENGLISH...DELTA AND OXFORD AROUND 1210 PM CDT...
  SHUEYVILLE...SIGOURNEY...MARTINSBURG AND KINROSS AROUND 1215 PM
  CDT...
  LAKE MACBRIDE STATE PARK AND SOLON AROUND 1220 PM CDT...

WINDS GREATER THAN 45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4145 9242 4151 9235 4151 9231 4155 9231
      4190 9189 4190 9092 4118 9141 4117 9242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 269DEG 57KT 4179 9192 4124 9254

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1207 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       W CANTRIL               40.64N 92.07W
07/19/2010  M1.75 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL THE MORNING. 1.30 FELL YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A 36
            HOUR TOTAL OF 3.05 INCHES.

&&

ERVIN