Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
00Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA. H85 DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
WITH AN AREA OF LOW 20 DEW POINTS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE SEPARATE MCS EVENTS
HAVE MERGED INTO A SINGLE MCS THAT IS MOVING GENERALLY EAST
NORTHEAST. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. NUMEROUS MESOSCALE LOWS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA. THE MAIN
FRONT...ALTHOUGH DISCONTINUOUS...RAN FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE
ARROW HEAD OF MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FCST FOR TODAY IS COMPLICATED. FIRST...CAPPED ATMOSPHERE HAS
RESULTED IN THE MCS BEING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED
RECENTLY. CURRENT MCS WILL CLEAR THE CWFA BY MID MORNING LEAVING
A COLD POOL AND BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ON.
HIGH POPS ARE IN THE NORTH WITH THE LOWEST IN THE SOUTH. EXTREMELY
HIGH PWS OF 2+ INCHES WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY STORM.

A GOOD JET WILL BE VEERING RIGHT INTO THE AREA TODAY. SO...CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AND ALLOW IT TO HEAT UP. THE SOUTH THIRD
SHOULD HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER 90S. THOSE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
LOW TO MID 70 DEW POINTS WILL FORCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
100S. THEREFORE...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH THIRD
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TREMENDOUS ENERGY
WILL BE BUILT UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE SO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.
SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE
SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT FIRES ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES WITH THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT BEING DRY.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA HAVE NOT HAD MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN FOR A FEW DAYS...SO THE GROUND WILL ABSORB SOME RAIN.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES FROM ANY STORM...ESPECIALLY THE MORNING
MCS...WILL BE VERY HIGH AND WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM ANY ABSORPTION.
RAIN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT THE SOUTH THIRD IS SO SATURATED FROM EXTREME RAINFALL
THE PAST TWO NIGHTS THAT ANY AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.

DUE TO THE IMPENDING HIGH IMPACT WX...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FCST FROM FRIDAY ON.        ...08...

&&

.AVIATION...
MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE TSRA WITH VSBYS AOB 2SM
AND CIGS AOB 2KFT. KDBQ/KCID WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACT.
ONCE THE MCS CLEARS THE AREA BY 15Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
THE NEXT ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP. VSBYS/CIGS AOB 2SM AND 2KFT
WILL LIKELY BE SEEN. ONCE CFP OCCURS AT EACH TAF SITE...CONDITIONS
TO AGAIN IMPROVE TO VFR.       ...08...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE EXPECTED MCS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THROUGH AND THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWFA WILL WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.
THE NEAR TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW ANY STORM LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. RIVER BASINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO ANY NEW
RAINFALL. CREST FORECASTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE...POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANTLY...TODAY BASED ON WHAT RAIN FELL AND EXPECTED FUTURE
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE SEEN WITH MAJOR FLOODING
ON SOME RIVERS. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND ANYONE WITH INTERESTS ALONG
AREA RIVERS NEED TO LISTEN TO FUTURE WEATHER AND RIVER FORECASTS
CAREFULLY AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY. ...08...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-241000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID MORNING. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

JUST AS IMPORTANT IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM EACH ROUND OF
STORMS. SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOOD EVENT.

ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100 THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A BRIGHTON IOWA TO ALEXIS ILLINOIS LINE.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A NEAR DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE
CONDUCTED SOME TIME BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
404 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 W DUBUQUE             42.52N 90.80W
06/23/2010  E70 MPH          DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 70MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

LEGRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
408 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 AM     TSTM WND GST     DUBUQUE REGIONAL AIRPOR 42.40N 90.72W
06/23/2010  M59 MPH          DUBUQUE            IA   ASOS

&&

LEGRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
427 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTICELLO              42.24N 91.19W
06/23/2010                   JONES              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN IN TOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

LEGRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
432 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW DUBUQUE            42.53N 90.73W
06/23/2010  M1.00 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

LEGRO

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