Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MCS
THAT ROLLED OUT OF NEBRASKA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA...AND NRN
MO WERE EXITING OUT OF OUR FAR NW IL COUNTIES AT MID AFTERNOON.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z INDICATED THE PRIMARY STATIONARY FRONT
REACHING FROM A LOW IN WESTERN KS EAST ACROSS NRN MO AND CENTRAL IL.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WAS DRIVING THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN NEB AT 12Z. THIS AFTERNOON...WV
IMAGERY REVEALED A LARGE DRY SLOT AND LARGE CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER
PROGRESSING INTO WRN HALF OF IA BEHIND THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO SRN
WI. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL
IA...WHERE AIRMASS IS LIKELY RECOVERING FOLLOWING THE MESOSCALE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TARGETING PERIODS OF MOST ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THAT REMAINS CRITICAL DUE TO
THE ON-GOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM
MODELS REMAIN OF LIMITED USE WITH CONTINUED POOR HANDLING OF THESE
MESOSCALE SYSTEMS. TONIGHT...WILL COUNT ON ON-GOING WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL IA TO REMAIN SCATTERED AND
DISORGANIZED AS THEY APPEAR TO BE LACKING ANY STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING. WILL START OFF WITH SCATTERED WORDING THIS EVENING...THEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S LATER TONIGHT AS BROAD
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSES WILL BE ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE H8
BOUNDARY.

TUESDAY...WARM H7 TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO LIKELY CAP
CONVECTION AND HAVE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE RANGE. WILL HAVE A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LIFTING NE ACROSS CO...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER MOST ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ACROSS WI AND MN. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING DOWN FROM ONLY H9 RESULTS IN HIGHS WELL
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE
LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY REACH INTO THE MID 90S TO
POSSIBLE 100 TO 105 RANGE BY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THIS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
..SHEETS..

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL MCS
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...THEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT LATE WED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL
FINALLY EXIT THE REGION FOR A DRY THU AND FRI PERIODS.

SAT THROUGH MON...AFTER SHORT PERIOD OF NW FLOW...ZONAL AND POSSIBLY
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO REDEVELOP. RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SAT AND SUN WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IN THIS TIME
FRAME. MONDAY BROUGHT IN DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LATE JUN
TEMPERATURES.
..SHEETS..

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTER DECAYING MCS CLEARS MOST TERMINAL SITES BY 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR LEVEL WAKE DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
MVFR BKN CU OF 2K-3K FT IN SOME LINGERING SWATHS OF LLVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE THROUGH 00Z TUE WITH THE MLI AND BRL TERMINAL MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS OCCURRENCE. WEAK SFC WAVE MOVING ACRS IA WILL
MAKE FOR VARIABLE SFC WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST...AND BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY AT 5-10 KTS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO THE WEST
TONIGHT THAT MAY EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AGAIN. LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH WEST AND LATE ENOUGH THAT THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
MAYBE TUE MORNING. ANOTHER SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP OUT OF ENHANCED CU DECK UNDER LINGERING MCV OVER CENTRAL IA
ATTM AND GET INTO THE VCNTY OF THE LOCAL AVIATION SITES AS EARLY AS
THIS EVENING. IF STORMS HOLD OFF TONIGHT...THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT
MAY COME FROM MVFR TO IFR LEVEL FOG IF SKIES CLEAR AND SFC WINDS GO
LIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS AFTER 05Z THROUGH 12Z TUE.
..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
LARGE...ORGANIZED COMPLEXES. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NRN MO INTO W CENTRAL IL...WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TRAINING STORMS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
OVER MOST VULNERABLE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FAR SOUTH.
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SHORT DURATION
HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT EVEN LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1
INCH DO NOT LOOK LIKELY. THUS...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
AFOREMENTIONED TRAINING IN THE SOUTH...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS EXTENDED TODAY TO 4 PM.

WILL HAVE A 24 TO 30 HOUR PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TUE THROUGH WED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TIMEFRAME CLOSELY. WITH RECENT CHALLENGES IN QPF AND CHANGING INPUT
INTO RIVER MODELS...THE MAGNITUDE OF ANTICIPATED FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS CONTINUES TO BE ADJUSTED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL LARGELY MISSING THE
AREA...OR REMAINING CONFINED TO LOWER COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.
..SHEETS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-222045-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
345 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH AREA SOILS
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

ON TUESDAY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES INTO THE RANGE OF 100 TO 105...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BECOME CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHEETS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     HAIL             4 NNE AUGUSTA           40.29N 90.92W
06/21/2010  M0.75 INCH       HANCOCK            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

DLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
410 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

IAZ088-089-098-099-ILZ025-212215-
DES MOINES-HENDERSON-HENRY-LEE-VAN BUREN-
410 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN VAN BUREN COUNTY...

AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BENTONSPORT/VERNON...OR NEAR
KEOSAUQUA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HILLSBORO AROUND 425 PM CDT...
  SALEM AROUND 430 PM CDT...
  PILOT GROVE AROUND 435 PM CDT...
  ST. PAUL AROUND 440 PM CDT...
  LOWELL AROUND 445 PM CDT...
  DANVILLE AND MIDDLETOWN AROUND 500 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 4104 9105 4077 9097 4065 9194 4083 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 257DEG 31KT 4076 9184

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
431 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TORNADO          2 N BONAPARTE           40.73N 91.80W
06/21/2010                   VAN BUREN          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RESERVE OFFICER OBSERVED TORNADO NORTH OF W40 MOVING
            NORTHEAST.

&&

LEGRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
514 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             DENMARK                 40.75N 91.33W
06/21/2010  E1.00 INCH       LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
518 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             10 N FORT MADISON       40.76N 91.35W
06/21/2010  E1.00 INCH       LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
519 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     NW FORT MADISON         40.62N 91.35W
06/21/2010                   LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEGRO