Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE CONCISE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER WITH NEXT LINE DEVELOPING
AND APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL IOWA.

VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT PACKAGE AS CONCERNS AND TRENDS FROM
PAST FEW DAYS ON TRACK.  EXITING BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE HAS PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF 60-70+ MPH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN AND NUISANCE
FLOODING.  ISOLATED HAIL UP TO 1" ALSO WITH TREES DOWN ACROSS AREA.
NOWCAST TOOLS SUGGEST NEXT LINE TO HAVE MORE DRY AIR ALOFT FOR POSSIBLY
STRONGER EVENT INTO LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES NOT OF THE
QUESTION EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF I-380 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH RISK OF
EXCEPTIONALLY LARGE HAIL AND WINDS AOA 80 MPH UNTIL MID EVENING.

SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WITH WEAK HIGH OVERHEAD. KEPT
LOW POPS FAR SOUTH MORE FOR CONTINUITY AS DIAGNOSIS SUGGEST MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE.  HIGHS LOWER 80S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN
RISKS.  LOCAL TOOLS STILL SUGGEST LARGE SWATH OF 1 UP TO 5 PLUS INCH
AMOUNTS OVER AREA WITH BEST AXIS OF 3 TO 5 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS STILL
ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SIGOURNEY TO MONMOUTH LINE BY TUESDAY
AM. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO HIGH END FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING FROM ALREADY MOIST SOILS.  SOUTH HALF MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR ALSO
STRONG WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH THAT WITH WET GROUND WOULD PRODUCE LOTS OF
TREES DOWN...AS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY.  TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
HIGHS STILL POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO WARM IF LARGE PRECIPITATION
AREAS LINGER...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEPT POPS MAINLY LOW ATTM BUT STILL SUPPORTS
DERECHO POTENTIAL FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. SOME TOOLS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE MODERATE-HIGH STRENGTH. MAGNITUDE OF FAST ZONAL JET ALONG
BATTLE ZONE SUPPORTS CHANGES WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF STRONGEST
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  PRIMARY DRIVERS  WILL BE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF COOL POOLS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE THE KEY.    ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS ALL TERMINALS
UNTIL 06Z.   ..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
914 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-191415-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
914 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS IS
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. BY EARLY EVENING...THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ANOTHER LINE...WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MANY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
UPCOMING WEEK. A NEAR DAILY THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...AND
INCREASING RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX READINGS OVER 100
DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AN EMERGENCY MANAGERS CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 1030 AM
THIS MORNING FOR ALL COUNTIES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAASE

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