Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
SETTLES IN ACRS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LEE SIDE STEERING RIDGE
FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN GRT LKS...THE DVN CWA WILL LOOK TO BE UNDER THE GUN FOR
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SCTRD CONVECTION FIRING AND MEAN MCS PROPAGATION
PATHWAY. LLVL FLOW RECYCLING OFF THE WESTERN GULF WILL ONCE AGAIN
LOAD UP THE AIRMASS ACRS THE REGION WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL DURING LATE FRI
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY...MUCH OF THE CWA IS NEARLY SATURATED AND
WILL BE PRONE TO COPIOUS RUN-OFF AND FLASH FLOODING WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR. ALTHOUGH AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY FROM WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS...TO
THE QCA AND OVER TOWARD PRINCETON IL ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE...SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE NEXT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SET UP AND MOVE
ACRS AND THUS WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY/SEE THE LONG RANGE
DISCUSSION BELOW/ AND WILL PUT A PRELIMINARY END TIME TO THE WATCH
AT 18Z MONDAY. OF COURSE THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE REALLY VARYING
ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR SOME FCST
UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONCEPTUALLY FEEL THAT A SCTRD BAND OF LEAD WAA
TYPE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING...AND BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGER COMPLEX EITHER BY AN INCOMING
WAVE/MCV FROM THE CURRENT KS-NEB ACTIVITY...OR NEW GENERATION ACRS
SOUTH CENTRAL IA AND MOVING ACRS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT MORE MUDDLED OF
A PICTURE WITH SOME MODELS PAINTING A PICTURE OF A LATE NIGHT MCS
AFTER AN EVENING LULL. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z RUN GFS AND
ECMWF OF SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT AFTER THE EVENING REMNANT MCS OR
SCTRD CONVECTION DECREASES OR MOVES OUT OF MOST OF THE DVN CWA AFTER
04Z OR 06Z...THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL UNTIL THE NEXT MCS DEVELOPS
ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN IA AND MAKES HEADWAY TOWARD THE
CWA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL BLANKET MOST OF
THE DVN CWA WITH LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EXCEPT THE
FAR NORTH. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF LIKELY POPS. WILL
USE HEAVY RAIN WORDING CWA-WIDE WITH INCOMING PW INFLUX OF 1.8 TO
OVER 2 INCHES. WITH SUCH A SATURATED AIRMASS/VERTICAL PROFILE...THE
CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY THREAT TO THE HEAVY
RAIN CONCERN WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS BEING ABLE TO MIX
DOWN DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA ACRS
NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL PRODUCTS
WILL PRIMARILY HIT THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPS TRICKY TODAY AND WILL
BANK ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO KEEP A LID ON THE WARM UP POTENTIAL LIKE
IT DID ON SATURDAY.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
FORECAST BASED LARGELY ON MASS FIELDS FROM MORE STABLE ECMWF AND
UKMET MODELS. SLOW MOVING FRONT... SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES... INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT... AND MOISTURE
RICH AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN RANGE OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES AND DEEP
ABOVE FREEZING COLUMN (UP TO 15 KFT) RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCTION WILL SPELL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MON AM WITH POSSIBLE
MCS ON NOSE OF 30-35+ KT LLVL JET IMPINGING ON WARM FRONT DRAPED
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. SUGGESTION OF SOME DECREASE IN PCPN BY AFTN
WITH PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL WAVE... BUT VEERED LLVL JET AND BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD REDEVELOPMENT DURING
AFTN... WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
MCS MON NGT. HAVE BLANKETED CWA WITH LIKELY POPS AND HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ON MON... AND WENT WITH HIGH CHC POPS MON NGT WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED AND ALSO MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN SOME
AREAS AS THREAT ZONE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. TUE LOOKS TO BE LAST WET
DAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION BY TUE AFTN INTO EVE...
FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE WET WX. BEFORE THE RAIN COMES TO AN
END BY TUE NGT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 12Z SUN-00Z WED LIKELY IN
RANGE OF 2-5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WITH GROUND ALREADY SATURATED IN
MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING QUITE
HIGH WITH SEVERAL ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE... VERY CONCERNED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END HYDRO EVENT WITH MANY MORE RIVERS INTO
FLOOD... SOME REACHING MAJOR STAGE... ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ALONG/S OF HWY 34. WILL ADDRESS
THESE CONCERNS IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK (HWODVN). THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.

TUE NGT-SAT...FINALLY A MUCH NEEDED CHC TO DRY OUT TUE NGT THROUGH
WED WITH DRIER AIR SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
WAKE OF PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. UNFORTUNATELY... MORE RAIN
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF AREA BY LATE WED NGT INTO FRI AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. GULF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND SO THIS COUPLED WITH SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL.    ..05..

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF IFR FOG MAY GET TRAPPED AT THE DBQ VCNTY UNTIL AFTER 12Z
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE THE OTHER TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY 2-
4SM FOG AND MAINLY VFR LEVEL CIGS THROUGH 14Z. THEN ROUNDS OF STORMS
EXPECTED TOP OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AGAIN BY MID MORNING
AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 17Z. HARD TO DEFINE AT THIS
POINT TERMINALS MOST AT RISK AND TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE MOST LIKELY WILL BE THE BRL TERMINAL AGAIN FROM
17Z ON THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN. MORE COMPLEXES OF STORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER 09Z MON WITH THE BRL TERMINAL AGAIN MOST IN LINE OF THIS LATE
NIGHT ACTIVITY AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.     ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO
     DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

12/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
459 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-141000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
459 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A QUARTER
MILE...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 AM CDT BEFORE LIFTING. THE DENSE FOG
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS.

A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND OCCASIONALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY IN LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLOODING ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VINTON IOWA...TO THE QUAD CITY AREA AND OVER TO
STERLING ILLINOIS. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT...THE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT RUN-OFF WILL WORSEN ONGOING
RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING...OR CREATE NEW RIVER FLOODING SITUATIONS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RENEWED
OR AGGRAVATED RIVER FLOODING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA BY THE TIME THE RAIN CHANCES END TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

12/05

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
831 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ025-034-MOZ009-010-131530-
LEE IA-VAN BUREN IA-DES MOINES IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-WASHINGTON IA-
KEOKUK IA-LOUISA IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-CLARK MO-SCOTLAND MO-
831 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...IS DEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST IOWA.  THESE STORMS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCH PER HOUR.

THIS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED...AND SAW FLASH FLOODING YESTERDAY. THESE NEW STORMS MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS...AND RISES
IN AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4129 9242 4105 9082 4024 9097 4019 9146
      4020 9151 4025 9151 4025 9195 4030 9196
      4030 9235 4060 9237 4061 9220 4116 9219
      4116 9241

ERVIN