Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

STORMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING...VERY WINDY LATE TONIGHT.

POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AS
12HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER OF -29 TO -30 DAM  TRACKS THROUGH.
BOTH NAM/GS STILL INDICATING SURFACE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE DETROIT
METRO AREA THIS EVENING...PLACING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF EIGHT MILE
UNDER THE GUN FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES (EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL
FELICITY)...WITH HAIL THREAT NORTH...BASED ON 850 MB CAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SUPPORT THE
FOCUSED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER...AS NOSE
OF 100+ KNOT JET SLIDES IN BY 00Z. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR AT LEAST THE BOTTOM FOUR COUNTIES.

THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO RAMP UP WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...AS GOOD SUBSIDENT/COLD PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z. 12Z
NAM IS REALLY AGRESSIVE...INDICATING 50 KNOTS AT 925 MB/65 KNOTS AT
850 MB. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE SUBDUED...AND HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE
ROAD...AND WOULD EXPECT WIND ADVISORY GUSTS OF AT LEAST 45 MPH FOR
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE EXPECTED TORNADO WATCH AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...DECIDED AGAINST ANOTHER HEADLINE...AND WILL
LET EVENING SHIFT ISSUE WIND ADVISORY...ONCE SEVERE THREAT PASSES.
LOOKING AT 12Z LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...BASED ON 925 MB TEMPS
FALLING BETWEEN 0 TO 2 C.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL QUICKLY EJECT EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSAGE.  THIS WILL
SEND THE THERMAL PROFILE PLUMMETING...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DIPPING BELOW -4C BY AFTERNOON.  THE RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
SUPPORTING LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF INSOLATION AND DEGREE
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER
40S SOUTH STILL APPEAR ON TARGET.  THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES SHY
OF RECORD LOW MAXIMUM VALUES /36-38F RANGE/...BUT STILL A GOOD 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE.  IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD
WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS RAW DAY...WITH AN INITIAL SURGE OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC DESCENT/COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY AND A RESPECTABLE
MIXED LAYER INTO THE AFTERNOON YIELDING GUSTY CONDITIONS.  LATEST
SOUNDINGS/WIND PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 TO 40 MPH...
WITH THE TYPICALLY HIGHER END NAM POINTING TOWARD A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLE ADVISORY WORTHY GUSTS /45-50 MPH/ DURING THE MORNING. ANY
LINGERING DEFORMATION FORCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING JUST A LOW CHANCE
AREAWIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW.

THE STRENGTH OF THIS AIR MASS WILL BRING FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO
KEEP FROST FORMATION PATCHY AT BEST SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR FREEZING LOWS OUTSIDE OF METRO DETROIT.
BETTER SETUP FOR BOTH CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE
RIDGING/WEAKER GRADIENT IN PLACE.  THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SOLAR HEATING WILL HELP
TAKE THE EDGE OFF COMPARED TO SATURDAY.  THE LATEST PROJECTED
850/925 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS OF LOW-MID 50S.  UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...MAINTAINING THE WARMING TREND WITH DAYTIME READINGS CLIMBING
BACK TOWARD THE 60 DEGREE MARK UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DRIVE THE NEXT
GOOD SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT PERIODS.  OVERALL SETUP
LOOKING RATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY...FAVORING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS/ELEVATED THUNDER EARLY TUESDAY ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE/THETA-E GRADIENT AND WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY EVOLVES LATE IN THE DAY WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON
PROPER PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND
WARM FRONT.  OVERALL SETUP CERTAINLY POINTS TOWARD A WET
DAY...WARRANTING AN ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN POPS TO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
THAT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW...AS VERY COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE WAVES
OVER ALL MARINE AREAS. WIND AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1214 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

AVIATION...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA THIS
EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TOWARD THE
OHIO BORDER. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN TONIGHT
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL LEAD TO WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 KNOTS...CENTERED AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
LOW VFR AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND TO TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
COVERAGE NOT WORTH PUTTING IN TAFS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO
     MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

     GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM SATURDAY.

     GALE WARNING...SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     GALE WARNING...FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     GALE WARNING...FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
442 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

MIZ075-076-082-083-081430-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
442 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF EIGHT
MILE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE....AS STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION PROVIDING THE
SEVERE THREAT.

THE STORMY WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS OCCURRED.

MIZ053>055-060>063-068>070-081430-
SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
442 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF EIGHT
MILE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS LARGE HAIL BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS LATE TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION PROVIDING THE SEVERE THREAT.

THE STORMY WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER ANY REPORTS OF
HAIL WILL BE APPRECIATED.

MIZ047>049-081430-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-
442 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HALF
INCH DIAMETER HAIL AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE
STORMY WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-081430-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
442 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH LATE EVENING SOUTH
OF SAGINAW BAY WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF PORT
SANILAC...AS THE STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE
ERIE. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE THROUGH 10 PM.

THE STORMY WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR ALL MARINE AREAS. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LHZ361>363-081430-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
442 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR ALL MARINE AREAS. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.../MWWDTX/.../GLFLH/ AND /GLFSC/.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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