Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
240 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WELL PRONOUNCE WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL IA THIS AFTERNOON AND
AT 2 PM EXTENDED FROM DENISON TO DES MOINES AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO
JUST NORTH OF OTTUMWA. AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ON THE WESTERN EDGE
NEAR AREA OF PROLONGED 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION. THE 12Z 4KM WRF
APPEARS TO BE LOCKED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH
ENDS THE REDEVELOPMENT SOON AND THEN ENDS THE PRECIPITATION FROM
WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER WAVE OF THETA-ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE IT WILL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AND NORTH BY TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRESENT BY NOON...BEST LIFT TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. H850 TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO 11-12C
BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. H850
FLOW INCREASING AGAIN WED NIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT. BOTH NAM
AND GFS SUGGEST ENHANCED SPEED MAX TO CROSS REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z
WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE PRESENT. SOUNDINGS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE...AT LOW TO MID LEVELS. NAM WOULD SUGGEST SOME
SPEED CONVERGENCE...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS FAIRLY UNIFORM FLOW.
PRESENTLY WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
MONITOR. TEMPS WED WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AS CLOUD FIELD ARRIVES
WITH FRONT BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER.
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT FRONTAL TIMING AND PASSAGE SOUTHEAST...BUT AS
REFERENCED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE FRONT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BY LATE WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IN CANADA
BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FRONT PUSHES EAST. WITH BOUNDARY
HUNG UP UNTIL A SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS GOING INTO NIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKING DRY FOR NOW...THOUGH SOME HINT THAT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TOWARD MONDAY AS ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GFS/GEM APPEAR TO BE FASTER IN BRINGING
TROUGH EAST. GENERALLY...SPRING MONTHS TEND TO FEATURE STUBBORN
GREAT LAKES HIGHS THAT HANG AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH RIDGE
BLOCKING ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THUS...EURO MAY BE THE MODEL OF
CHOICE LOOKING FORWARD INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  FOR NOW...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP SOLUTION DRY AT THAT TIME. TEMPS FOR THE DAYS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY LOOK COOLER. LOWS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S/40S OVER THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PERIOD FRI>>SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...
12/18Z...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NRN IA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFECT THE KMCW AREA WHILE REMAINING JUST
NORTH OF KFOD/KALO. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE IN VICINITY OF KMCW. ELSEWHERE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033-034-131700-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
1200 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL IOWA
WEDNESDAY...AND OVER THE REST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STATEWIDE THURSDAY TROUGH
SUNDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

IAZ035>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-131700-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
1200 PM CDT MON APR 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL IOWA
WEDNESDAY...AND OVER THE REST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STATEWIDE THURSDAY TROUGH
SUNDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

DONAVON

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