Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. EARLIER TODAY AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ORIENTED EAST/WEST STALLED OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND IS STILL
EVIDENT BY THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLIES SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO MORE EASTERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH CENTERED AROUND CENTRAL CWA.
LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WHICH WOULD
CAUSE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS TO THESE AREAS. ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LARGE CAPE VALUES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX AND BUSY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
PLETHORA OF HAZARDS TO CONSIDER. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
POTENTIAL HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANCES TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT DID INCREASE DEWPOINTS A BIT
FURTHER AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE LEFT THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTOUCHED AND EXPANDED THE
CORRESPONDING HEAT ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO
WEBSTER...STORY...MARSHALL...AND TAMA COUNTIES. ALSO INCREASED POPS
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT APPEARS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWED BY THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH AS
THE PARENT MID/UPPER LOW MOVES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH.
THEREAFTER...SOME RELIEF APPEARS IN STORE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE ENTER A QUIETER WEST NORTHWEST/CYCLONIC
STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND ADVECT SOME COOLER AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
INTO THE AREA. KEPT FORECAST DRY FROM LATE SATURDAY
ONWARD...ALTHOUGH VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODELS TRY TO SPIT OUT LIGHT
QPFS AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...10/18Z
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN IOWA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...BUT HAVE
MENTION OF CB BY 22Z AT FOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN IOWA
AND WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT HOURS AS THEY
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL FOLLOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS AS INDICATED BY SCT005 GROUP...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. GRADUALLY EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER 11/13Z.

THUNDERSTORMS AND MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
KFOD/KMCW/KALO THROUGH 14Z.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HOT AND HUMID
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR TIME OR LOCATION HAS PRECLUDED ANY
MENTION BEYOND CB WORDING FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
APPANOOSE-BOONE-CALHOUN-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-JASPER-
LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY
-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-
GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WEBSTER.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GUTHRIE-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

SHORT TERM...BEITLICH
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEITLICH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>