Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

.UPDATE AVIATION DISCUSSION 09/00Z...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND INTO RECORD TERRITORY.  NAM PRINTED OUT A 3.23 PWAT IN
SWRN IA TNGT...THOUGH TOO HIGH DO FEEL THE 2.5 RANGE IS LKLY.
COMBINATION OF SEVERAL SFC BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN THE INIT DVLPMT OF
THE TSRA.  FIRST FOCUS...AND POTENTIALLY SVR...WILL BE OVR NRN IA
WHERE BNDRY IS PRESENT EAST OF SFC LOW SW OF KSUX.  WEAK FLO ALF AND
SWD DRIFT PRESENT IN CORFIDI VECTORS WILL ALLOW MCS TO SINK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TNGT.  MDLS HAVE BEEN ON TRACK
WITH THIS AND THOUGH BULLSEYE CONTINUALLY SHFTS...IDEA OF MAX PCPN
OF 5 OR MORE INCHES IN SOME AREA HAS BEEN ADVTZD.  WENT WITH A FFA
FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TNGT INTO EARY MON FOR THE FAVORED AREA.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE/HOT/HUMID PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY...WITH CONTINUED PUSH OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE CWA ATOP THE CENTRAL US UPPER RIDGE. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY/CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MORNING.
THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS AT BAY SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDICES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON VERSUS
WARNING CRITERIA. WILL HOWEVER KEEP THE WARNING GOING AT THIS TIME
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...UNTIL MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAS A BETTER IDEA TO
ASSESS THE SITUATION. OTHERWISE...BOUNDARY TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA EXPECTED TO BE CAPPED. THEREFORE WENT WITH HIGHER POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. COOL FRONT TO DROP
THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR TSRA. HOWEVER AS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...SO EXPECT A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIP/HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AGAIN. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THEN DROP THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY DECENT COOL DOWN AS H85
TEMPS DROP FROM THE MID 20S CELSIUS TO THE MID TEENS...AND MUCH OF
THE HUMIDITY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z
MCS OVER NEBRASKA STILL MOVING EAST ATTM...BUT A TURN TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THOUGH H700 TEMPS NOW
UP TO ABOUT +13C WHICH IS MUTING MOST OF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OVER IA. AS WEAK WAVE APPROACHES...FEELING IS THAT MCS WILL BREAK
THROUGH THE MID LEVEL DOME AND ALLOW FOR SOUTH PROGRESSION. MAIN
THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60KT IF THE STORMS CAN
FOLLOW THE MOISTURE AXIS. HAIL ALSO A THREAT. ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE AFT
02Z AT KFOD...05Z AT KDSM...AND AROUND 04Z AT KMCW/KALO. HAVE
ARRIVAL TIME AT KOTM AFT 08Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
BY 11Z...SOME IFR BR EXPECTED WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CB AND ISO
THUNDER AFT 15-18Z TIME FRAME. MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE NOT
HIT LATER HOURS WITH CATEGORICAL WX FOR NOW./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR APPANOOSE-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-HAMILTON-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-JASPER-MADISON-
MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GUTHRIE-RINGGOLD-SAC-
TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS AUG 10
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
836 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

IAZ033-044-045-057-058-070-071-092215-
SAC-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-
836 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH SEVERE WINDS TO 70 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ON AVERAGE AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS.

EXCESSIVE HIGH INDEX TEMPERATURES OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES WILL NOT
FALL BELOW THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. MONDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
PLEASE SEE PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK...MAINLY AT NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.

EXCESSIVE HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES OF 100
TO 110 THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. MONDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED INTO EARLY MONDAY. PLEASE SEE
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

IAZ081-082-092-093-092215-
ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
836 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH SEVERE WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE HIGH INDEX TEMPERATURES OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES WILL NOT
FALL BELOW THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. MONDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEK...MAINLY AT NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES OF 100
TO 110 THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. MONDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

IAZ023-034>036-046>049-059>061-072-073-092215-
POCAHONTAS-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-MADISON-WARREN-
836 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ON AVERAGE AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS WHICH MAY APPROACH 5 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS. . A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH OR GREATER THE
PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  HEAT INDICES
WILL FALL BELOW 100 BY LATE EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
PLEASE SEE PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK...MAINLY AT NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
THE CHANCE OF HIGH HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INTO EARLY MONDAY. PLEASE
SEE PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS FROM TIME TO TIME.

IAZ004>007-015>017-024>028-037>039-050-062-074-075-083>086-094>097-
092215-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-HUMBOLDT-
WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-TAMA-
POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
836 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH OR GREATER THE PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE
HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 20. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE
EVENING.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
SEE PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK...MAINLY AT NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUE OF 100 TO 105 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. PLEASE
SEE PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY
20...AND FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEK.

REV

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
901 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E TEMPLETON           41.92N 94.92W
08/08/2010                   CARROLL            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS FORMING AND DISSIPATING. NO TOUCHDOWN
            OR DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
923 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S BARNUM              42.46N 94.37W
08/08/2010  E60 MPH          WEBSTER            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BEERENDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
925 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND GST     SSW HUMBOLDT            42.72N 94.23W
08/08/2010  M58 MPH          HUMBOLDT           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BEERENDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
928 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW FORT DODGE        42.56N 94.20W
08/08/2010  E60.00 MPH       WEBSTER            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRONG WINDS...TREES BENDING...PATIO FURNITURE BLOWN
            OVER. CORRECTION TO PREVIOUS REPORT...FORT DODGE IS THE
            LOCATION.

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
936 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     TSTM WND GST     SSW JEFFERSON           42.01N 94.38W
08/08/2010  E55 MPH          GREENE             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN
            35 MINUTES.

&&

RVACHALE