Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
610 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 105 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH VALUES DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA BY MID
EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TIMING OF THE HEAT ADVISORY.

COLD FRONT NEARING CWA...WITH STRONG CAP EVIDENT ON KOAX MID DAY
SOUNDING. RUC/NAM TRY TO ERODE CAP ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN ACTIVITY OF CONVECTION STILL
EXPECTED WITH AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG
INSTABILITY...AND MODERATE SHEAR TO STILL ALLOW FOR GREATER CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. SHEAR
STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SOME BUT STILL A THREAT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THIS
EVENING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS WELL...BUT ANY STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FLASH FLOODING FOR THE MOST PART. DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO EXPECT RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CWA BY
LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE DESERT SW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE NW TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP TO THE SOUTH. THE
MAIN EFFECT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS AS TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE SHIFTS THROUGH THE STATE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAIN
IF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AS STRONG AS TODAY. THE ECMWF
SUGGEST IT BEING WEAKER WITH IOWA MORE WET AND NEAR THE RING OF FIRE.

&&

.AVIATION...
15/00Z...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN IOWA WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL IOWA OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS. HAVE TIMING OF CONVECTION HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL
TAF SITES EXCEPT OTM.  LOOKING AT POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WEST
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
141 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-151000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
141 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE 105 TO AROUND 115 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL IOWA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
624 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-033-034-044-045-150100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...EMMETSBURG...
POCAHONTAS...HUMBOLDT...SAC CITY...ROCKWELL CITY...DENISON...
CARROLL
624 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
GRAETINGER SOUTHWEST TO THE IOWA AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS LINE OF
STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND LIKELY AFFECT
AREAS IN AND AROUND DENISON...TO SAC CITY...POCAHOTAS AND
EMMETSBURG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 800 PM CDT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED.

KLP

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