Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT MAJOR CONVECTIVE ACTION THIS EVENING AT INTERSECTION OF
CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING FROM KALO BACK TO THE NW
CORNER OF IOWA...AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL WORK EAST FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH PUTS MORE OF THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
INTO IOWA. ALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS EVENING...NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 OR 30. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...SO NEED
OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRETTY CERTAIN IN THE NORTH ESPECIALLY OVER
DES MOINES BASIN AREAS WHICH WERE HIT HARD LAST NIGHT. FARTHER
SOUTH...MORE QUESTIONS ON HOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE AS LARGER
SCALE BOUNDARY AND UPPER SHORT WAVE WORK SEWD. MAIN FACTOR CONSIDERED
WAS VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO...OPTED TO EXTEND
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING DES MOINES METRO COUNTIES
BASED UPON THE FACT WE COULD SEE BACK BUILDING AND LAST NIGHT'S
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE DES MOINES RIVER PUSHED ALL CREEKS TO FLOOD
STAGE TODAY. IT WON'T TAKE AS MUCH RAIN TONIGHT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...
SFC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL
CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CAA
AND SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR.  THEREAFTER...FORECAST IS VERY
STRAIGHT FORWARD AS SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NIL AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACRS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE COMING WEEK AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.  WILL BEGIN TO SEE RETURN FLOW BY
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES AND MOISTURE AS
NORTHWEST US TROF DEVELOPS.  HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY DURING THE
EXTENDED BUT MAY BEGIN TO SEE A THREAT INCREASE TOWARD NEXT FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
OF MUCH OF JUNE IS CERTAINLY IN THE CARDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
MCS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS DROPPED ANOTHER SWATH OF 2 PLUS INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN IOWA AND WIDESPREAD INCH
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.  A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THE STORMS AND SINCE REPORTS OF
DITCHES FULL AND SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE NORTH MOST OF ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL GO RIGHT TO RUNOFF.  GIVEN THE MESO-MODELS
FAIRLY GOOD TRACK RECORD LATELY AND THEIR SCENARIO OF DROPPING THE
HEAVY RAIN INTO CENTRAL IOWA AGAIN TONIGHT...HAVE EXPANDED THE
ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS LAST NIGHT.  IF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MATERIALIZE
TONIGHT...THEN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY
AFFECT MUCH OF THE DES MOINES RIVER BASIN. THE ONLY SILVER LINING IS
THAT THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
27/00Z...CDFNT FM LO IN SERN SD INTO NWRN KS WILL MOV SEWD INTO IA
TNGT.  STRONG TSRA WILL DVLP AHD OF CDFNT WITH STTN SIM TO WHAT
OCCURRED YDA.  APPROX TIMING FOR STRONGEST TSRA IS 03Z FOR
KFOD...04Z KMCW...06Z KALO...06Z KDSM...10Z KOTM.  PERIOD OF TSRA
WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDS AFT MAIN AREA GOES THRU.  CDFNT WILL EXIT THE
AREA SUN MRNG.  WNDS BCMG NWLY WITH CONDS IPVG RPDLY MID MRNG MON NW
TO ERY AFTN SERN TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM
7 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA ALONG AND
NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 92.

&&

SHORT TERM...JUNGBLUTH
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JUN 10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
432 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-272145-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-
432 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM ALGONA NORTH AND WEST. A FEW
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A TORNADO THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STORMS...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST SUNDAY MORNING.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

IAZ027-028-033>039-044>050-058>061-072>074-272145-
BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-
POLK-JASPER-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-
432 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURATED GROUND. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST SUNDAY THROUGH
NOON.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

IAZ057-062-070-071-075-081>086-092>097-272145-
AUDUBON-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-
WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
432 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING IN THE WEST...AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT FARTHER EAST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SUNDAY.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MID
MORNING.

JUNGBLUTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
907 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST DOLLIVER                43.46N 94.61W
06/26/2010  E60 MPH          EMMET              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60-65 MPH AND REPORTED WALL CLOUD WITH
            ROTATION.

&&

RHATTEBE

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