Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS HEAVILY DICTATED BY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN PIERRE AND
ABERDEEN...WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN OVER INTO NW WISC. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
APPROACHING THESE AREAS FROM THE WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LEADING TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. 70S SFC DEWPTS HAVE SURGED
FROM SOUTHERN KS EARLIER THIS MORNING INTO THE IA/SDAK/MN REGION AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH CU FIELD/STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY LIMITED TO
AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT THAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN SDAK INTO MN. INITIALLY THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OR ESE IN THE MEAN FLOW BUT THEN EXPECT
IT WILL TURN MORE SE TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. SPC IS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS ABOUT OUR NORTHERN HALF WITH A MODERATE RISK IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED POPS TONIGHT TO
REFLECT THINKING ABOVE AND HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 20 THIS EVENING AS FURTHER SOUTH THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAKER BULK SHEAR AND A LIKELY LATER ARRIVAL
TIME. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE STORMS WILL PENETRATE OUR AREA...BUT IT APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AREAS FROM AROUND CLARION TO MARSHALLTOWN
TO TAMA COULD SEE SOME STORMS IF THEY DO INDEED MAKE THAT TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING OF THE STORMS IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
AT THIS TIME BUT MOST LIKELY WINDOW APPEARS TO BE FROM AROUND 00Z IN
OUR FAR N/NW TO AROUND 06Z IN OUR E/NE. OTHER THAN CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS FEW CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS/FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM HRRR/WRF/NAM SUGGEST QUIET SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT POPS NIL BEFORE MIDDAY.
WILL SEE INSTABILITY INCREASE RAPIDLY BY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BEST IN NORTHERN IA CLOSEST TO THE WESTERLIES.  ANTICIPATE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. SOME CONCERN WITH
HYDRO AS WELL AS FORCING WILL CONTINUE IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW POINTING INTO THE STATE.  NOT
UNTIL THE FRONT/SHORT WAVE ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL THE PCPN
MOVE IN BODY ACRS THE STATE AND OUT OF IA ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...
LARGE EASTERN TROF DEVELOPS WITH QUIET WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.  APPEARS THAT 850MB FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH THE CALM WEATHER.  NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE 4TH OF
JULY WEEKEND DOES IT APPEAR THAT IA WILL HAVE CHANCES OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/00Z...DEVELOPING TSRA COMPLEX OVR SRN MN WILL SPRD/DVLP SWD INT
NRN IA AND TRIED TO TIME A COUPLE HR PD OF GREATEST THREAT ACRS THE
TAF SITES.  THINKING NOW IS KFOD 03Z, KALO 05Z KMCW 03Z, KDSM 06Z,
AND KOTM 08Z.  WILL CARRY A HR OR TWO WINDOW ARND OF VCTS TYPE
STUFF...BUT EXPECT CONDS OUTSIDE OF STRONG LINE TO BE VRR.  VFR
CONDS THRU A GOOD PART OF STA..BUT EXPECT TO SEE VIGEROUS TSRA DVLPT
BY MID TO LATE AFTN OVR AT LEAST THE N HLF OF IA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LEE
AVIATION...MS JUN 10
LONG TERM...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

IAZ033-034-044>049-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-261100-
SAC-CALHOUN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-AUDUBON-
GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-
MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-
RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
338 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTHEAST...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE STRONG WINDS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-035>039-050-261100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-TAMA-
338 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME AREAS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM HEAVY
RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO MORE FLOODING.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LEE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
938 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOLLIVER                43.46N 94.61W
06/25/2010                   EMMET              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN DOLLIVER

&&

DONAVON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
942 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     TSTM WND GST     ESTHERVILLE             43.40N 94.83W
06/25/2010  M70 MPH          EMMET              IA   ASOS

            ESTHERVILLE ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 61 KNOTS OR 70
            MPH.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE MILLS              43.42N 93.53W
06/25/2010                   WINNEBAGO          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN LAKE MILLS

&&

DONAVON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
956 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ESTHERVILLE             43.40N 94.83W
06/25/2010  M62 MPH          EMMET              IA   ASOS

            SECOND STORM PRODUCES A WIND GUST AT THE ESTHERVILLE
            AIRPORT OF 62 MPH.

&&

MS JUN 10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
959 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE JOICE              43.42N 93.39W
06/25/2010                   WORTH              IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE REPORTED DOWN OVER HIGHWAY 105. REPORT RELAYED BY
            KAAL.

&&

DONAVON