Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
425 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
CDFNT MOVG A BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS INDICATED...BUT WITH SFC WAVE
ADVANCING RAPIDLY ACRS IA EXPECT TO SEE THE CDFNT PUSH SE  SVR WX A
POSSIBILITY OVR THE SWRN HLF OF THE STATE WITH THE BEST CHC OVR THE
SWRN COUNTIES.  DECENT SHEAR IN THE 0-1 KM LYR AND INC CAPE SUGGEST
ATMOS BCMG MORE FAVORABLE.  TSRA OVF NRN IA MAY CONSOLIDATE...BUT
NOT BE THE REAL SHOW.  WILL RUN A PRE-1ST PD FCST TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT INIT CONVECTION.  SHOULD SEE THINGS MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
FAIRLY QUICLY THIS EVE AS PUSH OF DRIER AIR ADVANCES THE CDFNT OUT
OF IA BY ERY TO MID EVE.  AFT THE INIT PUSH OF COOLER AIR...WINDS
WILL SLACKEN AND DRY AIR ADVN WILL FAULTER SIM TO WHAT HAPPENED A
FEW NGTS AGO.  HELD TEMPS A BIT ABV MOS FOR THAT REASON.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE A DIFFICULT PERIOD TO FORECAST WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AND NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING TIMING AND THE MODELS HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS I MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. I DID HOWEVER WARM TEMPS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT ON. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD
AND FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVER IOWA.
HOWEVER...THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES ALSO CONTINUES SO I LEFT CHANCE
OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND EVEN INCREASED
POPS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. WIDESPREAD THREE TO SIX INCH RAINFALL LAST NIGHT HAS CAUSED
NUMEROUS ROADS TO CLOSE WITH RECORD FLOODING ON THE EAST FORK OF
THE 102 RIVER IN BEDFORD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH AGAIN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SINCE FLOODING IS ALREADY UNDERWAY...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MONROE-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MS
.LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...FAB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
155 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLOOD            6 SE BEDFORD            40.61N 94.64W
06/05/2010                   TAYLOR             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD...ROAD CLOSED ON 317TH BETWEEN ORANGE
            AND MONTANA ST.

&&

BF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
445 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

IAZ036>039-047>050-059>061-072-073-052345-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-MADISON-WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEBSTER CITY...ELDORA...GRUNDY CENTER...
WATERLOO...BOONE...AMES...MARSHALLTOWN...TOLEDO...ADEL...
DES MOINES...NEWTON...WINTERSET...INDIANOLA
445 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM AUDUBON TO
STRATFORD...PARKERSBURG AND WAVERLY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AROUND 45 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE...AND PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR EVEN A TORNADO. AREAS FROM ADEL TO
AMES...GRUNDY CENTER AND WATERLOO WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS
BY 530 PM...WITH THE DES MOINES METRO AREA AFFECTED AROUND 6 PM.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR...WITH RAINFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

MOYER