River Flood Warning 206, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
QSTNRY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE FROM CNTRAL KS THRU NRN MO INTO THE
KCHI AREA.  WEAK LOW FCST IN PROBS AND EVIDENT IN SFC ANAL OVR CNTRL
KS WILL MOV ALNG FNT GIVING ONE MORE ROUND OF TSRA THIS
AFTN...MAINLY OVR THE SERN ZNS.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN
PLACE OVR SRN IA...NOT SO MUCH OVER THE N...SO WILL HAVE FAIRLY
UNIFORM TEMPS ACRS THE CWA...WITH A SLGT BIAS TOWARD WARMER NRN
ZNS.  ANOTHER DAY WITH HI DP'S...HWVR WITH TEMPS MSTLY IN THE
80S...HI VALUES NOT EXPECTED REACH THE CENTURY MARK TDA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING IN THE LONG TERM AS WE FINALLY GET
A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS/WEEKS. FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WE WILL REMAIN BENEATH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. BY
LATE FRIDAY FLOW WILL SWING BACK TO SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PULLS AWAY...AND WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THROUGH SATURDAY THESE WILL BE TEMPERED BY
DEEP RIDGING OVERHEAD...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD BE MOVING BY AND THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SOME
STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL FEEL THAT THESE WILL BE LESS LIKELY IN
THE SOUTH WHERE RIDGING/CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT POPS THERE WITH MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTH. BY SUNDAY A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE FORMING OVER THE DAKOTAS
BENEATH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND A WARM FRONT WILL DRAPE
SOMEWHERE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WAA IN SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND EXPECT THAT SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WE SHOULD HEAT UP PRETTY EFFICIENTLY.
HAVE BUMPED UP SUNDAY MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY AND THEY MAY NEED TO COME
UP MORE ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE
MAY RETURN TO OUR MORE ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS.

.AVIATION...04/06Z
MCS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BRING IFR CEILINGS TO
KDSM...AND KOTM BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS
AT THESE SITES ALONG WITH THUNDER. HAVE INCLUDED LOWER CEILINGS AT
MORE NORTHERN TAF SITES AS EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTH. ALSO...ANTICIPATING EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
SITES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...AND LINGERING FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30 UNTIL 1000 AM.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS AUG 10
AVIATION...WILKINS
LONG TERM...LEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
506 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044-045-051100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-
506 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR
LIMITED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

IAZ046>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-051100-
GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
506 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARD THIS EVENING. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR
LIMITED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
756 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 AM     FLASH FLOOD      URBANDALE               41.64N 93.74W
08/04/2010                   POLK               IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL VEHICLES STALLED AT THE INTERSECTION OF NW
            URBANDALE DR AND MEREDITH DR...ALSO AT DOUGLAS AVE AND
            AURORA AVE. 1 TO 1.5 FEET OF WATER FLOWING DOWN ROADS AT
            THESE INTERSECTIONS.

&&

RHATTEBE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
800 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 AM     FLASH FLOOD      URBANDALE               41.64N 93.74W
08/04/2010                   POLK               IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TIRE-DEEP WATER FLOWING DOWN
            ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF MERLE HAY ROAD AND I80. POWER
            LOSS...AND SEVERAL STALLED VEHICLES

&&

RHATTEBE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
807 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNW DES MOINES        41.64N 93.67W
08/04/2010                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED STALLED VEHICLES AT INTERSECTION
            OF BEAVER DR AND VALDEZ DR.

0717 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNW DES MOINES        41.64N 93.67W
08/04/2010                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SEVERAL STALLED VEHICLES AT
            INTERSECTION OF BEAVER DR AND VALDEZ DR.

0702 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNW DES MOINES        41.64N 93.67W
08/04/2010                   POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SEVERAL STALLED VEHICLES AT
            INTERSECTION OF BEAVER DR AND VALDEZ DR.

&&

RHATTEBE

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