River Flood Warning 176, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
624 CDT MON JUL 19 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
COMPLICATED WX STTN TODAY WITH MULTIPLE FEATURES TO MONITOR.
INITIAL PROBLEM IS WITH THE MCS OVR NERN NEBRASKA INTO WRN IA.
SUPPORT ISN/T THE GREATEST FOR IT...BUT ENUF TO BE A MARGINAL SEVERE
EVENT.  FOCUS WILL TURN TO DVLPMT LATER FROM THE AREA OVR SD.  FEEL
THAT WILL ROLL DOWN AND INTENSIFY OVR THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  SIG
CAPE AND DECENT PROFILE SUGGEST SPC MOD OUTLOOK IS ON TRACK WITH A
SIG WIND THREAT IN THE WORKS.  4.5 KM WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A REALISTIC
PRESENTATION OF THE OVERALL TRENDS.  TEMPS ARE A PROB WITH
CONVECTION AND ALL THE CLOUDINESS. CUT MOS WITH EXPECTATION OF
WDSPRD CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE CHC FOR RECOVERY.  AFTN CONVECTION
WILL BE DRIVEN BY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARY
AND STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION.  THAT WON/T BE STOPPED...SO NEITHER
WILL CONT DVLPMT.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AT LEAST THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK...WILL REMAIN
QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS IA BOTH IN TERMS OF SVR WX AND HEAVY RAINS.
MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF GRADUALLY
LIFTING CURRENT KS/MO BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE
NORTHWARD THROUGH IA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES AND SPEED MAXES CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NRN PLAINS
WESTERLIES.  JET IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INTRODUCE IA TO FAVORABLE
HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS SUCH AS HIGH PWS/WCDS...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO REMOVE US FROM DEEP SHEAR.  THIS PUTS US IN THE UNPLEASANT
POSITION OF HAVING REPETITIVE SVR WX AND HEAVY RAIN MCS EVENTS.
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED DUE TO CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINLY
REGARDING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND PLACEMENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF MCS PLACEMENT AND TIMING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BOOST POPS
TOO MUCH IN LATTER PERIODS SUCH AS WED NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.  PATTERN LOOKS TO FINALLY CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS NWRN THROUGH EVENTUALLY BECOMES PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PUSH
FRONT THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING FRI.  HAVE JUST BUMPED UP POPS FRI
NIGHT FOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES AT THE MOMENT AS THEY
ARE BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN AND SVR MENTION TO THIS EVENING WITH SVR MCS
LIKELY ALREADY IN PROGRESS...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK /ESF/ HIGHLIGHTING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR LATER DAYS TOO.
WOULD IMAGINE THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE
COMING DAYS WHEN DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.  TEMP WISE STAYED NEAR
GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART...BUT DID GO JUST ABOVE MOS FOR HIGHS WED
PER SUGGESTIONS FROM SOUNDINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
COMPLEX WX STTN WITH TSRA AFFECTING THE SWRN 3 TAF SITES ERY...ISOLD
IN THE KMCW AND KALO AREA.  CONVECTION SHOULD BCM LESS WDSPRD BY MID
TO LATE MRNG.  REDEVELOPMENT WILL DROP A LARGE AREA OF THE STATE IN
TO MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDS IN TSRA AND CB BASES THIS AFTN AND EVE.
SOME IMPVMT OVR NGT...BUT TSRA WON'T TOTALLY LEAVE THE PICTURE THRUT
TAF PD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS JUL 10
LONG TERM...BSS
AVIATION...MS JUL 10

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
711 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

IAZ083-084-092>096-191315-
APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DECATUR-LUCAS-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-WAYNE-
711 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 709 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LUCAS COUNTY
TO NORTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTY TO EAST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.  ONE INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE
STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HUMESTON AND GARDEN GROVE BY 720 AM CDT...
  MOUNT AYR AND MALOY BY 725 AM CDT...
  MILLERTON AND KELLERTON BY 730 AM CDT...
  LAMONI AIRPORT AND DAVIS CITY BY 740 AM CDT...
  PROMISE CITY AND PLANO BY 745 AM CDT...
  MYSTIC AND SEYMOUR BY 750 AM CDT...
  NUMA BY 755 AM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
720 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

IAZ096-097-191245-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
720 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...

AT 717 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL APPANOOSE COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOULTON BY 730 AM CDT...
  8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DRAKESVILLE BY 740 AM CDT...
  BLOOMFIELD BY 745 AM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

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