River Flood Warning 166, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST IS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM ESTHERVILLE TO STORM LAKE.  THIS FRONT
WILL TAKE ALL NIGHT TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA AND CURRENT QPE IS 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR.  THAT WILL BE A LOT OF WATER ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
CWA.  CURRENT FF.A LOOKS TO BE GOOD POSITION WISE BUT I WILL NEED TO
EXTEND THE TIME OF THE WATCH OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE NW IS
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE REST OF THE CWA AND WHILE WE WILL BE
PUSHING THOSE LIMITS...WE WILL FOR SURE BE OVER THE 1-2 INCH
GUIDANCE AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.  THE FRONT WILL BE IN FAR SE IA BY DAY
BREAK AND WHILE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE DONE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND THOSE WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE
TRANSITORY IN NATURE AND ARE WEAKER THAN THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A COUPLE OF CONCERNS WITH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  FIRST IS WITH LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY
CLEARS THE STATE. NEXT ISSUE IS WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING
THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF QPF...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z THURSDAY
AS IT LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SOME PUSH BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
NAM SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND THINKING WITH HOW
SLOW THIS COLD HAS MOVED TODAY LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS ON THURSDAY.
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY
AND PW VALUES STILL RANGE AROUND 2 INCHES. WARM CLOUD TOPS RANGE UP
TO 14 KFT AND BUFR SOUNDINGS REMAIN DEEPLY SATURATED NEAR OTM
THROUGH 15Z. HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAIN CONCERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILD INTO THE STATE AND PROVIDE A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS. DEW POINTS
LOOK TO DROP AT LEAST 15 DEGREES FROM TODAY/S AIR MASS AND WILL
ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO
AFFECT THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  KEPT WITH MENTION OF POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN.  UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH
DECENT DYNAMICS AVAILABLE...WITH GOOD CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
08/00Z...MESSY START TO THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILINGS/VSBY RANGING
FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO AREAS OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH. KALO AND
KOTM APPEAR TO BE THE TARGET FOR GREATEST DURATION OF SHRA/TSRA AND
MORE HEAVY RAIN. BOUNDARY PAST KMCW AND ALMOST TO KDSM WILL KEEP
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWER THREAT WITH IT. MAY
HAVE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY TO CONTEND WITH AFT 06Z.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE LOW
LEVEL SATURATION TO THE EXTENT WE HAD LAST NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. COULD HAVE SOME SHRA STILL LINGERING NEAR
KOTM IN THE MORNING...BUT THE BALANCE OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR APPANOOSE- BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS- DECATUR- GRUNDY-JASPER- LUCAS-
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK- POWESHIEK-TAMA- WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-MADISON-RINGGOLD-SAC-
STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...BOKSA
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...MOYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
748 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

IAZ026>028-037>039-048>050-060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097-090100-
FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
748 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED BUT ANY RAINFALL REPORTS
WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>025-033>036-044>047-057>059-070-071-090100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-
748 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED BUT ANY RAINFALL REPORTS
WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

MOYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
516 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

IAZ047-059-072245-
BOONE-DALLAS-
516 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 510 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BOUTON BY 520 PM CDT...
  WOODWARD BY 535 PM CDT...
  MADRID AND 7 MILES NORTH OF GRANGER BY 545 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

BEITLICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
740 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARITON                41.02N 93.31W
07/07/2010                   LUCAS              IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER KNEE DEEP IN THE STREETS...TIME ESTIMATED...REPORT
            RELAYED BY KAAL

&&

JB

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