Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Des Moines, IA

522 
WGUS73 KDMX 120958
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
458 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

IAC099-123-125-181-121400-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100612T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JASPER IA-MAHASKA IA-MARION IA-WARREN IA-
458 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN WARREN...
MARION...MAHASKA AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 454 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AT 
400 AM...LAW ENFORCEMENT IN MARION COUNTY REPORTED WATER UP TO THE 
BOTTOM OF CAR DOOR IN PLEASANTVILLE.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...MONROE...NEW SHARON...OSKALOOSA...PELLA AND
PLEASANTVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 9257 4116 9339 4150 9341 4149 9333
      4151 9333 4160 9318 4159 9277 4151 9276
      4151 9246

$$

COGIL

004 
WGUS73 KDMX 121133
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

IAC099-123-125-181-121400-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100612T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JASPER IA-MAHASKA IA-MARION IA-WARREN IA-
633 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN WARREN...
MARION...MAHASKA AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 631 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
THE RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEAR THE SWAN AND 
PLEASANTVILLE AREAS IN NORTHWEST MARION COUNTY.  OTHER AMOUNTS OF 3 
TO 4 INCHES WERE COMMON IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MAHASKA INTO 
SOUTHERN MARION COUNTIES.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...MONROE...NEW SHARON...OSKALOOSA...PELLA AND
PLEASANTVILLE.

EARLIER IN THE MORNING...THERE WAS A REPORT OF WATER UP TO THE 
BOTTOM OF CAR DOORS IN PLEASANTVILLE.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 9257 4116 9339 4150 9341 4149 9333
      4151 9333 4160 9318 4159 9277 4151 9276
      4151 9246

$$

COGIL

066 
WGUS73 KDMX 121248
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
748 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

IAC099-123-125-181-121400-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100612T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JASPER IA-MAHASKA IA-MARION IA-WARREN IA-
748 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN WARREN...
MARION...MAHASKA AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 747 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ONCE AGAIN PASSING 
OVER THE WARNED AREA. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES 
OF RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS PRODUCING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF 
RAINFALL. THIS MAY LEAD TO RENEWED RISES AND FLOODING IN THE WARNED 
AREA. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...MONROE...NEW SHARON...OSKALOOSA...PELLA AND
PLEASANTVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 9257 4116 9339 4150 9341 4149 9333
      4151 9333 4160 9318 4159 9277 4151 9276
      4151 9246

$$

COGIL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1207 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.UPDATE...
ADDED 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

JUST EXPANDED CURRENT FFA TWO MORE TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO MO
BORDER.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ADVECT AND DEVELOP OVER NE IN BROAD
AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF WRN CONUS TROUGH.  THETA-E ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AREA ALSO EVIDENT IN THIS AREA...MAINLY
FOCUSED IN ZONE OF 305-310K MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE.  THESE
ISENT FEATURES CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS INTO ERN
NE/MO RIVER OVERNIGHT...AND ARE COINCIDENT WITH EXTREME PWS /AROUND
2 INCHES/...WCDS /OVER 14KFT/...K INDICES /40/...ALL VERY FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  STORM MOTION ALSO FAVORABLE WITH MEAN WIND
ONLY 15-20KTS INTO WRN IA BY 09Z WITH CORFIDI VECTORS ACTUALLY NIL
OR WEAK SWLY SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FOR AWHILE.
THUS EXPECT NRN KS/SRN NE MCS TO EXPAND EWD INTO SWRN IA ON NOSE OF
LLJ...WITH OTHER DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH.  ALL THESE
AREAS OF SEEN RECENT RAINS OF AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES...WITH TOPOGRAPHY
ALSO FAVORED FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SRN HALF OF WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH
THE THREAT IS MINIMAL AS CAP REMAINS IN PLACE. IF CAP WEARS
DOWN...THEN GOOD INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO BRIEF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS LACKING AND ANY STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED.

GREATER FORECAST CONCERN BECOMES POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT...THOUGH GENERAL
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MCS NEAR LOW PRESSURE AND ALONG
BOUNDARY LOCATED IN EASTERN COLORADO. MCS SHOULD TRACK NORTH
EASTWARD...GENERALLY ALONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WOULD TRACK THE
SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE TURNING
EASTWARD. EXPECT NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO EXPERIENCE THE
BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS IN PAST NIGHTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AS
SURFACE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE LIMITING
MOISTURE INFLOW AND FEEL THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THEN
MODELS EXPECT. ALSO...AREA HAS EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CWA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH IN
WATCH ATTM...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY APPEARS TO CHANGE LITTLE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE
TO STEER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OR MCVS OVER OR IN THE VCNTY OF
IOWA. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THAT FAVORS A RELATIVE MAX OF RAIN/TSTM
PROBABILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE NOON...WITH A MINIMUM IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWLY
SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...AND MAY ACTUALLY GET SOUTH OF
IOWA BY SUNDAY...BUT THAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN WE ARE IN THE
CLEAR AT THAT POINT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUE THE
DIURNAL TRENDS OF MCS ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES EAST OF US AND HELPS SHUNT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM
IOWA. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE BACK
TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WITH AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION.

IN THE NEARER TERM...AM EXPECTING THE OVERNIGHT MCS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN CWA SAT MORNING...AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD BY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WEST TO EAST...BUT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LINGERING THROUGH THE AREA AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXPECTED...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ZERO...BUT ALSO NOT ALL THAT HIGH. BY
THE TIME THE STRONGEST CONVECTION GETS INTO OUR AREA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IF
ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN FIRE...A STRONG INSTABILITY...BUT LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL THREAT FROM MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12/06Z...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS 18Z AND 00Z THINKING.  EXPECT
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NEBRASKA TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO IA WITH POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST INTO IA
BEFORE IT GETS HERE.  THUS HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION AND
THUNDER WILL AFFECT SITES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...BUT
LITTLE CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION.  THUS
WILL STAY WITH VICINITY WORDING UNTIL TIMING BECOMES CLEARER.
SIMILAR THINKING WITH VFR VS MVFR.  CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR OR
LOWER WITH STORM OCCURRENCES...BUT PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME.  WINDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS WELL WITH
MEANDERING FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE ACROSS IA AT 06Z AND EXPECTED TO
MOVE LITTLE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ADAMS-ADAIR-AUDUBON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-EMMET-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-RINGGOLD-SAC-TAYLOR-
UNION-WEBSTER

&&

SHORT TERM...WILKINS/SMALL
LONG TERM...MOYER
AVIATION...SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
406 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-033>035-044>046-057-058-070-071-122115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-
406 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A LARGER AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME IS LOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
FAIRLY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND...AND IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-036>039-047>050-059>062-072>075-081>086-
092>097-122115-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-DALLAS-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
406 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A LARGER AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY. THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME IS LOW...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
FAIRLY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND...AND IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

MOYER