Tornado Warning 7, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
NO SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM. TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 04Z IN NE MN AND 06Z IN NW WI. GUSTY SFC
WINDS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FOR A TIME AFTER STORMS END THEN CRANK UP AGAIN 13Z-14Z
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 7 PM...

ARC OF TORNADIC SUPERCELL STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NW MN SSEWD TO
BETWEEN ALEXANDRIA AND BRAINERD WITH SEVERAL CONFIRMED TORNADOES
WITH STORM IN SOUTHEAST OTTERTAIL COUNTY.  IF STORMS MAINTAIN
PRESENT MOVEMENT..THEY WILL MOVE INTO CASS/CROW WING COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5-530 PM.

TORNADO THREAT IS VERY HIGH OVER CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES THROUGH
AT LEAST 630 PM.

AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO LAKE
WINNIBIGOSHISH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH STRONG
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND 40-50 KT LLJ. THE LARGER SCALE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING TORNADOES...GOLF BALL AND LARGER HAIL...AND APPEARS TO BE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.

RADAR DATA FROM KDLH/KMPX/KMVX SUGGESTS NUMEROUS NEW UPDRAFTS HAVE
DEVELOPING BETWEEN ST CLOUD/ALEXANDRIA AND BRAINERD. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNING OF UPSCALE GROWTH FROM DISCRETE CELLS TO MCS
DEVELOPMENT..AND THIS TRANSITION MAY BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE DULUTH CWA /CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES/
BETWEEN 5-6 PM.  AS SUCH..WE EXPECT THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES AND HAIL  OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  77  54  71 /  70  10  10  10
INL  56  73  51  72 /  70  20  30  10
BRD  56  78  57  75 /  50  10  10  10
HYR  64  84  58  76 /  70  20  10  10
ASX  62  82  58  75 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ143>147.

&&

AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
242 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-181030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
242 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 5-6 PM..AFFECTING ITASCA AND KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.

A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM... WITH STORMS RAPIDLY SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MINNESOTA...
GENERALLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 53 AND INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDORS... AND
IN PARTICULAR AREAS FROM GRAND RAPIDS... TO LEECH LAKE... BRAINERD
AND LAKE MILLE LACS.  TORNADOES... THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF
80 MPH... AND GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO LIFE AND PROPERTY...
AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY CURRENT WITH THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-181030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
242 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEE
THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
WINDS... LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

 MILLER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
553 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNZ011-012-019-172345-
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
553 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE VERMILION LAKE AND
BOUNDARY WATER CANOE AREA...

AT 545 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMILION LAKE AND MUCH
OF THE BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA IN NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THE STORMS WERE TRACKING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. STRONG WINDS
MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES OR DEAD TREES TO BE BLOWN DOWN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EASTERN VERMILION LAKE...PINE LAKE...CUMMINGS LAKE...BIG MOOSE
LAKE...CROOKED LAKE...FOURTOWN LAKE...AND BASSWOOD LAKE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4826 9197 4825 9189 4822 9185 4821 9172
      4812 9167 4810 9154 4805 9156 4809 9124
      4819 9110 4818 9108 4760 9171 4770 9297
      4836 9205 4835 9201

GRANING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
605 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW BOWSTRING          47.56N 93.83W
06/17/2010                   ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES ABOUT 8 TO 10 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A FEW
            TREES DOWNED. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TORNADO          4 ENE BREEZY POINT      46.62N 94.14W
06/17/2010                   CROW WING          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SPOTTERS TRACKING A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR PELICAN
            LAKE.

&&

LAMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNZ035-036-180045-
NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-
649 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADING FOR AITKIN COUNTY...

AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD AITKIN COUNTY FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COUNTY BY 730 PM.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO
WARNINGS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER QUICKLY IF NECESSARY. A
TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR AITKIN COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEALTHWOOD...         MCGRATH...            MALMO...
  GLORY...              GLEN...               DADS CORNER...
  AITKIN...             ROSSBURG...           ARTHYDE...
  RICE LAKE...          KIMBERLY...           HASSMAN...
  WAUKENABO...          WALDECK...            MCGREGOR...

LAT...LON 4701 9374 4699 9310 4623 9309 4623 9330
      4628 9377

04