Tornado Warning 28, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS.

AT MID AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AN
AREA FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO THE
SOUTH SHORE AREAS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHER NEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THE STORMS IN OUR CWA WERE GENERALLY TO THE NORTH OF A WELL
DEFINED WARM FRONT. THE WARM AIR HAD REACHED OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S IN HINCKLEY AND SIREN...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WAS
EXTREME...BUT THE 18Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWED WARMING IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS PLACING AN EFFECTIVE CAP ON THINGS FOR A WHILE. NEW
WATCH LOOKS GOOD...AND THINK CONVECTION WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN INCREASE IN TCU ACTIVITY AND
ASCENT FROM INCOMING FRONT AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DIMINISH THE CHANCE FROM NW TO SE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. FOR THE WATCH PERIOD...WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE SURFACE BASED CELLS...WHICH COULD
QUICKLY BECOME TORNADIC WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR TORNADO IF
DISCRETE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WARM SECTOR WERE INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
70S. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM HAS A VERY STRONG
CONVECTIVE RESPONSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
RIGHT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH MORE QUIET...WITH DRY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO USHER IN DRIER AIR.

THE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHEN AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS HEADS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME FAIRLY
STRONG MCS ACTIVITY. WILL START THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY
INCREASING POPS FOR THE AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP THEM UP MUCH
MORE WITH TIME.

.EXTENDED...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MAINLY DRY AND WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PRODUCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  78  54  77 /  70  10  10  10
INL  54  75  48  78 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  60  79  52  78 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  63  82  54  82 /  70  10  10  10
ASX  64  79  55  77 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
EXTENDED....BERDES
AVIATION...BERDES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-281030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND
VERY LARGE HAIL ARE GREATEST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IRON RANGE UP
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE SILVER BAY AREA... INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS
AREA...AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-281030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE SUDDEN STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FROM THE SILVER BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN SOUTH SHORE.
WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

DAP

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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