Tornado Warning 14, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
NO SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM. TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 04Z IN NE MN AND 06Z IN NW WI. GUSTY SFC
WINDS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FOR A TIME AFTER STORMS END THEN CRANK UP AGAIN 13Z-14Z
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO POTENTIAL
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 7 PM...

ARC OF TORNADIC SUPERCELL STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NW MN SSEWD TO
BETWEEN ALEXANDRIA AND BRAINERD WITH SEVERAL CONFIRMED TORNADOES
WITH STORM IN SOUTHEAST OTTERTAIL COUNTY.  IF STORMS MAINTAIN
PRESENT MOVEMENT..THEY WILL MOVE INTO CASS/CROW WING COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5-530 PM.

TORNADO THREAT IS VERY HIGH OVER CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES THROUGH
AT LEAST 630 PM.

AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO LAKE
WINNIBIGOSHISH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH STRONG
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND 40-50 KT LLJ. THE LARGER SCALE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING TORNADOES...GOLF BALL AND LARGER HAIL...AND APPEARS TO BE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.

RADAR DATA FROM KDLH/KMPX/KMVX SUGGESTS NUMEROUS NEW UPDRAFTS HAVE
DEVELOPING BETWEEN ST CLOUD/ALEXANDRIA AND BRAINERD. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNING OF UPSCALE GROWTH FROM DISCRETE CELLS TO MCS
DEVELOPMENT..AND THIS TRANSITION MAY BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE DULUTH CWA /CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES/
BETWEEN 5-6 PM.  AS SUCH..WE EXPECT THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES AND HAIL  OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  77  54  71 /  70  10  10  10
INL  56  73  51  72 /  70  20  30  10
BRD  56  78  57  75 /  50  10  10  10
HYR  64  84  58  76 /  70  20  10  10
ASX  62  82  58  75 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ143>147.

&&

AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
242 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-181030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
242 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 5-6 PM..AFFECTING ITASCA AND KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.

A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM... WITH STORMS RAPIDLY SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MINNESOTA...
GENERALLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 53 AND INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDORS... AND
IN PARTICULAR AREAS FROM GRAND RAPIDS... TO LEECH LAKE... BRAINERD
AND LAKE MILLE LACS.  TORNADOES... THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF
80 MPH... AND GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO LIFE AND PROPERTY...
AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY CURRENT WITH THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-181030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
242 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEE
THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
WINDS... LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

 MILLER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

WIZ007-180215-
WASHBURN-
823 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADING FOR WASHBURN COUNTY...

AT 818 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD WASHBURN COUNTY FROM THE WEST.
THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY 900
PM.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO
WARNINGS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER QUICKLY IF NECESSARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SPOONER LAKE...       TREGO...              SPOONER...
  SHELL LAKE...         SARONA...             MINONG...
  LAMPSON...            EARL...

LAT...LON 4616 9159 4566 9156 4567 9202 4614 9204

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
855 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

WIZ002-008-180245-
BAYFIELD-SAWYER-
855 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADING FOR BAYFIELD AND SAWYER
COUNTIES...

AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD BAYFIELD AND SAWYER COUNTIES FROM
THE WEST. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THESE
COUNTIES BY 945 PM.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO
WARNINGS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER QUICKLY IF NECESSARY. A
TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NELSON LAKE...        UPPER EAU CLAIRE LAKE...
  RESERVE...            NORTHWOODS BEACH...   LITTLE ROUND LAKE...
  HAYWARD...            EDGEWATER...          CHIEF LAKE...

LAT...LON 4692 9081 4655 9097 4595 9094 4594 9071
      4567 9072 4567 9151 4672 9152

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
904 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             JACOBSON                47.00N 93.26W
06/17/2010  E0.88 INCH       AITKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0820 PM     HAIL             1 W HILL CITY           46.99N 93.61W
06/17/2010  E0.88 INCH       AITKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM     HAIL             2 NW MOOSE LAKE         47.41N 93.72W
06/17/2010  E0.75 INCH       ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 S GRANTSBURG          45.71N 92.68W
06/17/2010                   BURNETT            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL IS ROTATING AND GOING UP AND DOWN BUT NO DEBRIS
            VISIBLE.

&&

GRANING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
913 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TORNADO          3 W GRANTSBURG          45.78N 92.75W
06/17/2010                   BURNETT            WI   STORM CHASER

            POWERLINES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO A HOME OBSERVED NEAR
            GRANTBURG ON HIGHWAY 70. LIKELY TORNADO DAMAGE.

&&

GRANING

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