Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
737 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDER NORTH OF DULUTH. INTRODUCED
AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT SEEMS TO BE ADVECTING UNSTABLE AIR AND CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY FURTHER NORTHEAST...UP THE SLOPE OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE BEEN ELEVATED...THE WARM FRONTAL
SURFACE IS UP OFF THE SURFACE...AND POTENT BUT NO REPORTS OF HAIL
REACHING THE GROUND OR WIND GUSTS OVERCOMING THE ENERGY IT TAKES
TO PUSH DOWN INTO DENSE SURFACE AIR YET. MOST ACTIVE STORMS ARE
WEAKENING AND PASSING OUT OF OUR AREA. REALLY DANGEROUS STORMS
WITH BOTH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES AND ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP VERY
UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUE TO APPROACH SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA...THE PORTIONS NOW UNDER A TORNADO WATCH. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE INCOMING TROPICAL AIR...WE ANTICIPATE FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
SHALLOW MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO MANIFEST ITSELF WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL BUT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010/

AVIATION...08/08/00Z ISSUANCE...
AN AIR MASS CHANGE IS BRINGING VERY HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE OR EVEN TORNADIC...WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS A GPZ/DLH/HYR LINE.
RELUCTANT MARINE AIR NORTH OF THE STRONG WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE VFR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE LAKE
AND PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT...ANY FOG WILL LIFT BY
MIDMORNING SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AFTER MIDMORNING
SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010/

DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FA AT 19Z FROM KXVG TO KCOQ TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN NW WI. CHAOTIC CLOUD MASS HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE FA
ALL DAY AND HAS KEPT MAX TEMPS...AS WELL AS INSTABILITY...IN
CHECK. BEST INSTABILITY IS S OF THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN ATTM. SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL BE
THE FORCING MECHANISM NEED TO LAUNCH THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE
STORMS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO SOUTHERN
TIER OF FA THIS EVENING...S OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2.

THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE FA TONIGHT WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX. PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT A GOOD CLIP KEEPING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. SOME ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
IN NW WI SUNDAY MORNING. A BRAKE IN THE ACTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FA AS FAST MOVING WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
SOUTHERN CANADA MAY HAVE A FEW STORMS CLIP THIS AREA. HAVE SMALL
POPS IN PLACE.

FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVER THE FA. DID
PLACE A SMALL POP OVER THE ARROWHEAD AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE AFFECTING THAT AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOISTEN UP IN THE LOWEST 1K FT.
THE RIDGING PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE WEST COAST TROF FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS ON TUESDAY.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...
THE WAVY AND STRONG ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES AS A SERIES OF ARCTIC
OUTBREAKS CONTINUE FROM GREAT SLAVE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF HUDSON
BAY.  MEANWHILE...THE FEROCIOUS HEAT SPELL AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
HIGH CONTINUES FROM THE COLORADO PLATEAU EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...ALL THIS CONTRAST MAINTAINING THE ZONAL FLOW.
DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN MODELS ALSO MAINTAIN A LARGE  TROUGH ALOFT OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE AMERICAN NORTHWEST...WITH SHOTS OF COLD AIR
AND OUT-OF-PHASE TROUGHS BEING BROUGHT OVER OUR AREA.  IN GENERAL WE
CAN EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM AND REMARKABLY HUMID WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...HIGH POTENTIALS SUGGEST THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
QUITE POTENT...WITH ALL THE DYNAMICS AND VARIABLE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT.  SO...ONE SUCH TROUGH AND COLD POCKET MOVES OVER US AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS ADVECTS HOT AND HUMID TROPICAL
AIR FROM THE GULF STRAIGHT INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES US...WITH A WARM MOIST HANG-BACK TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  ANOTHER STRONG...FAST MOVING
TROUGH ALOFT ACCOMPANIES INCREASINGLY POTENT LOW LEVEL TROPICAL AIR
ADVECTION THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY.  A COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
UPPER AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...PUSHES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING ON ALL THE MODELS.  THE MODELS SUGGEST
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN AND DRYING TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
SUNDAY.

AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH AND ALONG A LINE FROM KBJI
THROUGH KHIB TO KBFW THROUGH 08Z. AFTER 08Z THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
FOG WITH VSBY AOB 3SM.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  79  61  86 /  80  10  10  10
INL  58  84  58  89 /  30  20  10  10
BRD  65  89  67  92 /  80  10  10  10
HYR  65  88  62  93 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  63  82  60  89 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EOM

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