Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS COMMENCED AS OF 1830 UTC AS VERY INTENSE
MID LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY...AND RESULTING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. AS OF 1740 UTC...INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM
SOUTHWEST OF GOODLAND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHICH WOULD
ORGANIZE AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS, LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS
WILL BE FAVORED WITH SUPERCELL STORMS. GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE THREAT AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, AS MORE STORMS DEVELOP, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TRANSITION TO QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES. THAT BEING SAID, LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES WILL STILL BE FAVORED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF QLCS
(QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) TORNADOES AS THE THREAT AREA
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST BY THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS THE MAIN SYSTEM
LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS YET
ANOTHER WAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL
FAVOR LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE DDC FA. MORE SURFACE-BASED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DDC FA...AND POINTS SOUTH OF THERE. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE DDC FA
GIVEN THIS LINE OF THINKING.

THIS WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT VERY MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED ACROSS FRONT RANGE
AND LARAMIE RANGE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LARGER SCALE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION.

DAYS 3-7...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WAS MADE THIS AFTERNOON,
AS A GENERAL EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS WELL AS EVEN INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT EJECTING A
DEEPENED MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED ALOFT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH TIME INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE
LARGE CYCLONE THAT REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST
WILL HELP ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND EVENTUALLY A DEVELOPED MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE FROM NEW MEXICO TO MINNESOTA.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT,
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BRING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS BEFORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOME AGAIN ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS/MCS ACTIVITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD BE BEST TIMED INTO THE
AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUDY A COOL CONDITIONS PROBABLY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
SOME DECOUPLING OCCURS, BUT A GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY. LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY AFFECT ANY AND ALL TERMINALS SITES.  TEMPOS
WILL BE USED FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BEFORE A
PREVAILING TSRA MAY BE NEEDED IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  81  61  86 /  50  50  40  20
GCK  56  81  59  85 /  40  40  40  20
EHA  52  82  58  85 /  30  50  40  20
LBL  60  83  59  86 /  40  50  40  20
HYS  62  82  62  84 /  50  30  40  20
P28  65  85  64  87 /  30  50  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>088.

&&

FN25/33/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1236 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010 /1136 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO
LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZED AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE EARLY THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL, WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND TORNADOES.  THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 BETWEEN 5 AND
9 PM CDT. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE BEST TIMEFRAME AND AREA FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION, IT WILL BE VERY WINDY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS COULD POSSIBLY BE NEEDED FROM 5 PM TO 9 PM THIS EVENING,
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO SAINT JOHN.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12/32/33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
657 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             5 S INGALLS             37.75N 100.45W
05/24/2010  M0.75 INCH       GRAY               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
711 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             3 WNW MONTEZUMA         37.61N 100.49W
05/24/2010  M1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

&&

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
722 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             3 N ARNOLD              38.67N 100.03W
05/24/2010  M0.75 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
724 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             4 ENE ALAMOTA           38.47N 100.24W
05/24/2010  M1.00 INCH       LANE               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JFINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
734 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             16 W JETMORE            38.08N 100.19W
05/24/2010  E0.75 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
745 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             6 ESE KALVESTA          38.03N 100.18W
05/24/2010  M0.75 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

06